Citations in my comment below [1] that the Navy is operating ~14k sailors short of what is needed to operate safely, per the GAO. Assuming structural demographics and ongoing forward looking labor shortages, we can predict with significant confidence that the situation will only degrade further, as young labor has superior options for both operations and shipbuilding [2] [3].
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43921352 ("As of late last year, the Navy was lacking nearly 14,000 enlisted sailors to keep its aircraft carriers, surface ships and attack submarines properly manned, according to the GAO. The watchdog also found that aircraft carriers, cruisers and amphibious assault ships did not have enough enlisted sailors assigned to them to meet requirements for safe operations as laid out by the Navy Manpower Analysis Center.")
[3] Amid shortage, Navy recruiting program struggles to keep half first-year shipbuilders: Official - https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/amid-shortage-navy-recru... - March 26, 2025 ("Difficulties in competing with the service industry wages in particular is a common complaint among shipbuilding executives. “It used to be that there was a big gap between manufacturing wages and other wages in any other industry,” Ingalls’ Shipbuilding President Kari Wilkinson told Breaking Defense in August. “Now you’ve got service industry wages — you can go down and be an attendant at Buc-ees for the same as an entry wage at a shipyard.”)
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43921352 ("As of late last year, the Navy was lacking nearly 14,000 enlisted sailors to keep its aircraft carriers, surface ships and attack submarines properly manned, according to the GAO. The watchdog also found that aircraft carriers, cruisers and amphibious assault ships did not have enough enlisted sailors assigned to them to meet requirements for safe operations as laid out by the Navy Manpower Analysis Center.")
[2] The High-School Juniors With $70,000-a-Year Job Offers - https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/skilled-trades-high-sc... - May 7, 2025
[3] Amid shortage, Navy recruiting program struggles to keep half first-year shipbuilders: Official - https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/amid-shortage-navy-recru... - March 26, 2025 ("Difficulties in competing with the service industry wages in particular is a common complaint among shipbuilding executives. “It used to be that there was a big gap between manufacturing wages and other wages in any other industry,” Ingalls’ Shipbuilding President Kari Wilkinson told Breaking Defense in August. “Now you’ve got service industry wages — you can go down and be an attendant at Buc-ees for the same as an entry wage at a shipyard.”)