It feels like we are seeing the beginnings of somewhat permanent deglobalization. What happens if the US decides they just want to trade with South America, Canada and Western Europe and stops doing business with the rest (including pulling their navy out of all the places they currently patrol, which I think is maybe the most dramatic thing that could happen)?
I don't think we're seeing deglobalization so much as strategic uncoupling from current and potential future autocrats.
So, instead of relying solely on the best producer of each thing, economies want to also make sure they spend a little bit more to also get products from the second and third best producers to keep them producing just in case the first producer does something like (for lack of a better phase) throwing a firebomb in an apartment to kill a spider.
They then treat the extra cost of products as a risk premium so the risk is already priced in.
Markets hate higher prices, but they hate uncertainty more.
