In the mind of a serial bankrupcy expert being in debt gives one leverage. In reality all the piled up treasuries give China breathing room and their sell-off would put the US under stress. The US may be the largest customer of China but is dwarfed by internal customers and the rest of the world. Loosing customers hurts China but it can be compensated. Now as a supplier of volume goods China is much harder to substitute. And as a supplier of specialized high-tech goods China is impossible to substitute. Loosing suppliers in manufacturing breaks complete value-chains so there is colateral damage. On the other hand imagine some smaller critical US component breaking a supply chain in China - there will be fewer of such cases and bad cases can be handled with exceptions. Much different from the US situation where there are many more specialized components from all over the world are impacted.
Let's look at car head-lights. These are highly integrated components, designed and manufactured by third parties using tools made by forth parties with the knowledge not in the hands of the car manufacturer. Swapping them may well need re-designs and re-certification. Hard to put an estimate on the overall process but it won't be quick.
And last but not least how is new business attracted: The rule of law makes a country safe for an inherrently very risky process of overseas investments. Expats are critical resources for knowledge ramp-up and managing the first years. Billionairs with a seat on Trumps table may not care so much about the rule of law but SME business do. Expats who may move with their family need to be able to rely on visa, green cards and travel being safe. The opposite of what is needed to attract business is done as far as one can see from afar.
A trade war with no clear path for winning started from a position of weakness.
Let's look at car head-lights. These are highly integrated components, designed and manufactured by third parties using tools made by forth parties with the knowledge not in the hands of the car manufacturer. Swapping them may well need re-designs and re-certification. Hard to put an estimate on the overall process but it won't be quick.
And last but not least how is new business attracted: The rule of law makes a country safe for an inherrently very risky process of overseas investments. Expats are critical resources for knowledge ramp-up and managing the first years. Billionairs with a seat on Trumps table may not care so much about the rule of law but SME business do. Expats who may move with their family need to be able to rely on visa, green cards and travel being safe. The opposite of what is needed to attract business is done as far as one can see from afar.
A trade war with no clear path for winning started from a position of weakness.