It's those with your attitude, in a state of constant smug denial, who look like tools right now. We'll see how it goes in a few years, but I doubt that will change. The constant goalpost-shifting as LLMs keep getting better and better is becoming embarrassing, and even if they stopped getting better from now on, which is certainly not the case, their impact on communications is on the same order of magnitude as that of the WWW. The curmudgeons I work with are too stubborn to realize that LLMs have moved past GPT-3, and most of the haters on HN sound the same.
That is the goal of a hype trend. To make even healthy skeptics feel like they are missing a great thing.
I am actually an early adopter though. I just don't like bragging around.
Researchers know that most "goal posts moved" are actually great challenges. It would be sad if they saw it as pessimism.
Think of it as a more creative way to engage in the hype.
Skeptics are more valuable than blind believers. You want a blind believer testing your airbag or a skeptic that will move some goal posts to try and sniff out any bugs?
The same thing that makes me think that it could: I do not have a crystal ball.
It's a simple test. Have patience. With your tone, even if you are right and it stands the test of time, you will look like a tool.