I think my post aged quite well, considering the resolution happened a few hours later, no?
Your post was implicitly invoking Occam's razor and so the premise of the question was about deciding which explanation to believe. I rejected that premise because it wasn't necessary to decide between the two explanations—they weren't mutually exclusive.
The only proof I had was that I've seen enough of these events resolve themselves very similarly to the way this one was resolved—which is why I was recommending a "wait and see" approach.
