This comes close to my hobby science of 20 yrs+! Toilet statistics! What distribution do people follow in choosing doors? Linear (no!), Negative Binomial (I think so, but which parameters? And do the number of stalls matter?), Gaussian? Do cleaners clean all stalls proportionally? Which urinal to choose? Never pick a neighbor? Is there an optimization there? Then the economics part…
Regarding OP. Splash isn’t the only factor in urinals alas. Ease of cleaning and the ability to stop junk. I’ve seen innovative splash less designs in bars. Usually a plastic cup upside down will seriously mess up the flow. People throw paper and gum and cigarettes in them. You need it splash free And robust.
TFA does mention the fourth one is preferred in part because of cleaning. I think they wanted to show something that maximized for splash and a more realistic solution.
Possibly won't be very popular in all of the US: Urinals seem to be optimized for maximum noise (in some parts of Europe for minimum sound). Different design objectives. Or in some Southeast Asian countries, regular (small) toilets are optimized to be able to be flushed with a single bowl of water: Standing in front of them will almost always spray in all directions (but hot temperatures will usually take care of it quickly enough).
I am pretty sure the urinal in my gym is designed to be splashy to inhibit people using it. Saves on the water bill. I can't think of any other reason...
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43668957