Yeah some PRC producers heavily dependant on US is going to get burned. But shave off maximalist 3% and most Chinese will just have to face the bleek reality of... living QoL of summer 2024, which TBH weren't great time for economy due to RE unwinding, but prices were under control and borderline deflationary. Whereas Americans are going to face some of the steepest CoL increases in their lifetimes. E: PRC grew enough and diversified trade enough that even relatively total trade disruption US simply can't fuck PRC hard enough for most people to live worse than they were 5 years ago, vibes will definitely feel bad because... well the world is exploding, but very few in PRC is going to long for lifestyle 20 years ago where per capita income was 1/6th and everything including the air was shitty.
It's interesting to me how it's no big deal for China to stop selling all these products, implying that they don't send much to the US or they aren't exposed that much to trade pressure, but simultaneously Americans are supposed to somehow experience a devastating cost increase.
But if the amount of products China sells to the US aren't a big deal/don't amount to much, or whatever, Americans won't see much in the way of large price increases either.
The more likely scenario is Americans are going to see higher prices, but China is going to be very much feeling the effects of these tariffs.
We've already seen this manifest in the creation and subsidization of companies like Temu which are making the cheapest products possible without regard to environmental factors or product quality (i.e. your t-shirt disintegrates after you wash it once) to keep the manufacturing lights on and keep Chinese people employed.
It's not big deal for MOST Chinese, who are used to consuming cheap Chinese goods and will continue to. It's a big deal for MOST Americans, who are used to consuming cheap Chinese goods but will not continue to. It's also a big deal for some Chinese producers that depend on US which is minority, because US though largest, is not significant share of PRC exports, and US producers who depend on PRC. The former I've acknowledged.
I don't think Americans will see large price increases, as in nothing most households can't absorb / pile on their credit... but US is debt society, so many will drown. The pain is not the same as PRC dipping more into savings if they deal with price increase.
So no, IMO the most likely scenario is many americans are going to feel the tariffs, some will drown, some PRC producers that depend on US and american producers (that depends on PRC inputs) are going to drown. But your average Chinese will tighten belt like then did in 2024, because vibe sucks, not because they're losing purchasing power or going bankrupt, since PRC has high savings society.
> seen this manifest
Again, wipe 3% off PRC GDP (i.e. near total cessation of US trade) and they're back to 9 months ago. They'll broadly feel what they feel then. Some will feel it worse, because they're specifically exposed to US trade. But most will not. The average American will feel the trade war more than the average Chinese, because the average Chinese will continue to get cheap Chinese goods. The psychology is going to hit different on society level and influence accordingly.
