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This is thoroughly studied. He’s grim trigger but fairly good at choosing close to optimal moves when we believe Trump’s Razor.



The trick is that he'll bring his competitors and even partners in a position where they are threatened with suffering at a level of X. Then he'll offer you a deal that makes you suffer Y with Y < X but also Y > 0.


Yet playing a mixed strategy means that—-to maintain unpredictability—-these deals to avoid venal retribution are not always offered. I predict less than 30% of the time; almost all his Pareto-optimal deals are very obscure. The biggest example is USMCA, which he wrote and negotiated. Yet, today he says it was signed by a fool. “The dumbest explanation is usually the correct one.”




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