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Well the most responsive "actual" indicator we have is flashing bright red, but you've already decided that doesn't matter to you



Consumer confidence isn’t actually a metric of the economy. At best it’s a correlate to an actual indicator, which can be something you can link if available.

Simplest way to make my point is to look at the confidence during covid vs January of this year.


Was this a response to my comment?

There’s no such thing as an “actual indicator.” The economy isn’t a real thing that exists. It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate.

The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator.


> The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator.

yes.

> It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate.

no. some things are actually measured, like employment rate.

sentiment also can be measured, but is meaningless, because it can contradict behavior, which actually affects the real world. sentiment certainly is correlated to behavior, which is why it's a good leading indicator, but is often wrong about what is happening (see the USA 2024 election, and covid).


> no. some things are actually measured, like employment rate.

Sure, employment rate is measured though uhh, via a survey just like consumer sentiment. The relationship between employment rate and "the economy?" A correlation.

The rest of your comment is umm... internally contradictory.


Ok




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