Trump is leaning on the fact that US consumers are the golden geese of consumers. Which is in fact true. So he will go to the EU and ask them if they would rather sign new currency and trade agreements or lose the top 20% of their buyers. The currency and trade agreements will pretty much be "Let us weaken the dollar, and equalize trading tariffs, ideally at 0%. In return you will get continued military support and preferential future trading terms"
On the surface this actually isn't too terrible. But the problem is that Trump is an idiot and he is the one who has to navigate this.
Also that assumption is changing dramatically. Globally maybe 15 countries are on substantial upward trajectories that will last decades, similar to South Korea's transformation.
If you could travel to 2075 you're likely to find places like Vietnam and Nigeria rising economic stars.
There is no point in making a deal with someone who will not respect any deals. Remember the deal with Mexico and Canada in the first Trump mandate? They made a new agreement and that's what they received as payment. Any country or block that deals with this administration is basically lunatic or in deep despair.
>But the problem is that Trump is an idiot and he is the one who has to navigate this.
I mean I totally agree here. The goal however will be a deal that lasts decades and hopefully trump will be a rekoning and we will see a return to more stability in the future.
It seems we are boarding this bus no matter what, and Trump is driver. If he flies off a cliff, then we can all say "told you so" to the right on the way down, for whatever that is worth.
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On the surface this actually isn't too terrible. But the problem is that Trump is an idiot and he is the one who has to navigate this.