FWIW, that is 100% a retconned explanation. No one anywhere was talking about this theory until the last week.
It's clear that Trump demanded tariffs, tried to do it once early, and got cold feet. What happened with Lutnick et. al. is Court Politics. They saw an opening to improve their own status by selling a creative lie that would allow Trump to do what he wants. So he bought the lie and picked new favorites.
But it remains a lie. No one serious thinks that this is a good idea.
Also: refinance the debt?! First, no, that's not how federal bonds work. They're a contract and you pay the interest it says on the note. But even if you had a magic money pool around to do buybacks or whatever... most of the outstanding debt is in 30 year notes at like 3%! How low do you think they're going to get the Fed to go?
I think at least some of them are also true believers. The administration is full of people that have their own extreme ideas on how the world should work and now they have the chance to try them.
Right, that's the amount issued in short term bonds and whatnot. It cycles all the time. But again: it's maturing. You don't need to "refinance it", for the same reason you don't refinance a mortgage with only $6k principle left. There's no point, just pay it off and work on a new loan.
So the question becomes "can we get better rates for bonds?". And clearly the answer is hell no, because nothing in this mess makes US debt look more attractive to foreign investors. We're moving in the opposite direction from the way the cult expects things to go.
It's clear that Trump demanded tariffs, tried to do it once early, and got cold feet. What happened with Lutnick et. al. is Court Politics. They saw an opening to improve their own status by selling a creative lie that would allow Trump to do what he wants. So he bought the lie and picked new favorites.
But it remains a lie. No one serious thinks that this is a good idea.
Also: refinance the debt?! First, no, that's not how federal bonds work. They're a contract and you pay the interest it says on the note. But even if you had a magic money pool around to do buybacks or whatever... most of the outstanding debt is in 30 year notes at like 3%! How low do you think they're going to get the Fed to go?