1) Economic/Monetary Inflation, which is an increase in the money supply in an economy driven by government or central bank ("print money").
2) Price Inflation, which is an increase in the general price level of goods and services that people typically notice at the groceries or gas and usually derives from monetary inflation, but can also be due to the new tariffs.
Is the Fed going to do the same confusion and use 2 to justify higher rates for longer?
I think they shouldn't unless they're being disingenuous and politically motivated (push just enough to make the entire Trump mandate an unending crisis until Democrats get back in power).
According to monetarist theory these two things are one and the same.
The main source of "money printing" is banks making loans. And this is what the Fed targets when it raises interest rates.
I'm not quite sure whether tariffs really do lead to inflation. It depends on how consumers and companies respond to higher prices of imported goods and to the general sense of uncertainty.
It's not something I was aware of until recently, but I was surprised that it was not more under the control of the government and central bank (in the UK, anyway, if it turns out it's different in the US).
Interestingly that paper from the Bank of England makes no mention of "fractional reserve" anywhere, but they do say:
>Another common misconception is that the central bank
determines the quantity of loans and deposits in the
economy by controlling the quantity of central bank money
— the so-called ‘money multiplier’ approach
>While the money multiplier theory can be a useful way of
introducing money and banking in economic textbooks, it is
not an accurate description of how money is created in reality.
Rather than controlling the quantity of reserves, central banks
today typically implement monetary policy by setting the
price of reserves — that is, interest rates.
>In reality, neither are reserves a binding constraint on lending,
nor does the central bank fix the amount of reserves that are
available
Anyway, I think I'm digressing from the topic a bit here - but I _think_ what I've learned recently is that in the UK it isn't actually fractional reserve banking, which I was surprised by.
>but I _think_ what I've learned recently is that in the UK it isn't actually fractional reserve banking, which I was surprised by.
The BoE doesn't currently impose a mandatory reserve requirement. They do have more general liquidity requirements though (central bank reserves being one possible source of liquidity). I would still see it as a fractional reserve banking system, especially as these minor differences don't matter for the question of how money is created.
Yeah I think that's a fair shout, the main element being that private banks create the money via loans. Thanks for engaging, I appreciate the discussion. One day I might grok how modern economies hang together, but I've a way to go yet.
>I'm not quite sure whether tariffs really do lead to inflation. It depends on how consumers and companies respond to higher prices of imported goods and to the general sense of uncertainty.
They won't absorb the new costs. That has not happened in the history of capitalism as far as I am aware. Higher costs will inevitably equate to higher prices without an offset somewhere.
Investors don't like unpredictability, which Trump has already shown to be very unpredictable in regards to tariffs (the whole on again off again stance changes for example).
Higher prices also lead to less buying activity. History has proven this out too.
If you mean that importers will not absorb costs then I agree. They will pass on most of the costs, if not immediately (to avoid sticker shock) then over a period of time.
But the question is what happens to demand for imported goods and demand for everything else. At constant money supply, prices of some goods going up could put pressure on the price of other goods and services, although this seems less likely as the tariffs are so extremely broad.
A lot depends on how people respond. Will they reduce saving to pay higher prices? Will they take out loans to maintain living standards (creating new money in the process)? Or will they cut back on spending causing a recession?
And what will companies do? Will projects be put on hold because the return on investment is too unpredictable? What happens to the dollar? Will Trump cut other taxes to offset his tax hikes on imports? What about the massive budget deficit?
Consumers will pull back, if not right away it will show up with 18 months, though early indications suggest they already are to brace for the price increases as most were already trying to simply get ahead of the last few years of inflation to begin with.
Businesses are already cutting back. My employer has already talked about the impact, I know other people who are saying the same thing. Lots of things going into freeze or slowing down. It will take a minute for this to get through the economy but it absolutely will.
I don’t think this is highly uncertain territory, history has clear examples of what will happen if in doubt. Generally, it’s not good for most, especially consumers or those who have any reliance on foreign material or goods, which nowadays is most businesses and consumers, and the US won’t be able to magically fill that in.
> I think they shouldn't unless they're being disingenuous and politically motivated (push just enough to make the entire Trump mandate an unending crisis until Democrats get back in power).
They've been saying since the Biden administration they are going to keep raising rates. If the Trump regime's choices drive us into an unending crisis, bailing him out with rate cuts would be the politically motivated choice. Continuing to raise rates is just sticking to principles.
That’s a speculative article that was wrong. I was also somewhat misremembering JPow saying he wouldn’t cut rates after the inauguration as him saying he was going to raise them. Rates changed a small amount in September, then they did two big cuts after the election. Not really evidence of political bias in any case.
The gist is that Republicans are going to blame the Fed of playing politics when I terest rates are lowered, and blame Biden for when interest rates rose. Rates go up, Bidens fault, rates go down - politics. That is the republican talking point. The article ascribes no direct motive but says the reduction in rates is due to the fed claiming victory on inflation. Which, was wel down and approaching target when the fed started cutting rates.
It is ironic that an article that says (paraphrasing) "here is what the political talking point would be", be used as __evidence__ for that talking point.
1) Economic/Monetary Inflation, which is an increase in the money supply in an economy driven by government or central bank ("print money").
2) Price Inflation, which is an increase in the general price level of goods and services that people typically notice at the groceries or gas and usually derives from monetary inflation, but can also be due to the new tariffs.
Is the Fed going to do the same confusion and use 2 to justify higher rates for longer?
I think they shouldn't unless they're being disingenuous and politically motivated (push just enough to make the entire Trump mandate an unending crisis until Democrats get back in power).