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What still baffles me is how people act like this was some kind of thoughtful decision.

When you put someone incompetent in charge of a country, a company, or a sports team, collapse is inevitable, no exceptions. We’ve seen it play out over and over again because of stupid choices only driven by ego.

Now it’s the US’s turn



For extra sauce on the "they're barely even thinking about this" cake someone figured out where those crazy "Tariff Charged" numbers were coming from, they're taking the trade deficit and dividing by the total imports from that country.

https://imgur.com/a/jBTiz7T

edit: The White House deputy press secretary posted their formula and it is just trade_deficit/2*total_imports per country just dressed up with a lot of fancy language to make it seem smarter but the two extra terms are constants.

https://x.com/KushDesai47/status/1907618136444067901


I just asked ChatGPT with a lazy prompt: "Come up with a formula to impose reciprocal tariffs that will reduce America's trade deficit to zero" and it came up with basically the same formula.

Oh man if people in the White House are just using ChatGPT...

https://chatgpt.com/share/67ee890e-b400-800b-ac83-90a6147d32...

(edit: fixed link)


> chatgpt.com/share/67ee890e-b400-800b-ac83-90a61463212

404.

> White House are just using ChatGPT

Likely, Grok? https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMg%3D%3D_e8b4c405-3bb8-4f01-9...


The Terminator franchise had it that the AI has to nuke humanity and fight a giant war including time travel to take over.

Nah, all it has to do is offer to be "helpful" and do stuff for us and we'd be like "sure, go ahead, take over, here let me cut and paste your advice right into a policy document."


People keep asking me how AI will "take over", they don't like my answer "humans are lazy and delegate everything to the AI".


They don't like it because they know it's true.


I never know for sure if that's the source or if the bots are just reading the same "Tariffs for Dummies" source the administration is working from.


I can't believe that could be real at all, but then remembered we're still on the "Biff has the Grey Sports Almanac 1985" timeline


Good to see that Trump will be providing subsidies on goods imported from Australia to balance out the -107% trade relationship they have with them.

Oh wait its a 10% tariff on Australia too. Better make a new version of this chart with a -117% benefit to the US then...


[flagged]


I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. What rtkwe described is literally what they are? They didn’t say the tariffs are random (unless the comment changed, which would explain why yours makes no sense to me), they said they aren’t what the White House is claiming they are.

If you think trying to balance out the trade deficit with every single country without any other nuanced consideration whatsoever is a good approach, that’s one thing (a lot of people would disagree), but there’s no getting around that the information around this is either misinformed or deliberately misleading.


I'm objecting to his characterization that "they're barely even thinking about this." He makes it seem like they picked this formula out of a hat. But there is an ideological rationale to scaling tariffs up with the size of the trade deficit, as described in the article I linked.


Why do you think the White House aren’t simply saying that, then, rather than claiming it’s about reciprocal tariffs and trade barriers?


The "idealogical rationale" is not coherent or even consistent with the papers that the administration cited:

From one economist who was cited in the rationale:

> It is not clear what the government note is referencing or not from our work ... But I believe our work suggests a much higher value should be used for the elasticity of import prices to tariffs than what the government note uses. ... The government note uses a value of 0.25 for ‘the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs’, denoted with the Greek letter phi. But our estimates found a value of 0.943 — very close to 1 — for this elasticity.

From another:

> this is where the discrepancies between our work and the table that President Trump showed arises ... our results suggest that the EU should not be tariffed, and yet they set high tariffs against them. Finally, our range of optimal tariffs is substantially lower than the ones the Administration just announced.

But it does provide a convenient fig-leaf rationalization for the class of over-confident economically illiterate folks to cling to, so it seems to have succeeded.

see: https://www.ft.com/content/bbaa8daf-b7b0-4dca-bc23-c2e8eee68...

non-paywall: https://archive.ph/wip/JMgcP


rayiner does this pretty consistently - strawmanning the argument and acting confused, on most political threads on hn.


I notice he seems to have a GPT-level understanding of issues, offering a thin justifications of his viewpoints, and then just completely ignoring any substantive discussions and instead only engaging in threads where he is "winning".

IIRC he is a lawyer, a field where strategically deploying intellectual dishonesty is particularly advantageous.


He's done this since at least 2016 so you can rest assured he's not a bot.

This is a real human being making these apologetics and using classic distraction and whataboutism techniques


Rayiner of 10 years ago started his arguments from axioms other than "the Republican Party is correct" as he does now. I miss old Rayiner. His arguments against the Democratic position on e.g. Citizens United and Bush v. Gore were persuasive back then. Nowadays virtually nothing he says is persuasive, because it's incredibly obvious that he's starting from the position that the Republican Party is correct and working backwards from there.

(He's also getting about as close as you can get to the "out-and-out racism" line as you can get without maybe technically crossing it. Though I think he did cross it when it comes to Irish Catholics.)


That's why I’ve stopped feeding the troll — I just downvote or flag when necessary. It’s a shame because, years ago, he was one of the better commenters on HN.


Nope my edit was to add the bit I helpfully marked edit to show where the White House had confirmed this was their method while attempting to deny it.


I've seen this comment a couple of times. What would be a better way of doing it? Also consider that if they would've had a more complex formula, what would be the cost of needing to explain it publicly? Would they then need to start defending the fairness of each tariff vs doing it the simple way and having a single formula across the board?


How about “not doing it at all”?


How do you propose to fix deindustrialization?


US industrial output is the highest it has ever been. Where did you get the idea that we "deindustrialized"?


US industrial output is much lower than it has been relative to our consumption. We should mostly make in the country the industrial products we consume.


We are a consumer nation because we are more prosperous than our peers. It's the same reason you buy your food at a grocery store.

Generally, the clamoring for domestic production comes down to: 1. Employment. But because we are more prosperous, our employment is aimed elsewhere. We have jobs for people that are less dangerous, less manual, and better paid.

2. A fear that without domestic production, we're at a strategic or military disadvantage. But it's not that we _can't_ produce in an emergency, we can and have historically (see: oil in the 1970s). What protects us most is hegemony, which is threatened by things like across-the-board trade wars.

3. Nostalgia for the good ol days. Look, if you want to work in a factory, we have lots of them here, still. Nobody will stop you from putting on the hard hat. But in all likelihood you have a less stressful, less dangerous, and better-paying job today.

There really isn't an argument for this. Our trade was - as all trade is - mutually beneficial. Right now we're pushing the glass to the edge of the table when it was perfectly fine where it was.

One other important note: there are things we literally cannot produce domestically due to lack of natural availability (food products, certain textiles)


How can a "prosperous" nation sustainably consume more than it produces?


As long as there's someone to produce it ... forever?

I somehow keep eating 6-10 eggs a week despite not having a chicken.


Growth. Same reason we never need the national debt to be smaller than it is.


I think people look at "national debt" as though we're buying trillions of dollars of stuff and not, fundamentally, two things:

1) mandatory saving for future, like a Social Security for the country (which is ironically also comprised of Social Security)

2) investments made into the future of the country. People buy T-bonds because they're reliable returns. Low risk, relatively low reward. If suddenly our future looks less bright, our debt will slow, but it will be a pretty telling canary in the coal mine.

It's baffling to me that people generally don't grasp this. They treat it as though we're just ... buying stuff on a credit card.


Like this goes back to Adam Smith; these questions have been answered for a long time now


Manufacturing as a share of GDP is bound to fall. It is inevitably going the way of agriculture.

The US is in the envyable position of having developed a globally dominant service sector. Putting that at risk of retaliation by imposing tariffs on all imports, including the lowest margin stuff like screws and bolts is utter insanity.

https://www.ft.com/content/aee57e7f-62f1-4a57-a780-341475cd8...


> We should mostly make in the country the industrial products we consume.

You state this as fact that we should all agree on. Why should we do this? Why not rely on our allies and friends to do what they do well, while we continue to do what we do well? Is trade not the basis of peace? If we stand alone, we must ask why we must.


Why? That's what trade is for


I'm curious, are you personally volunteering to work in the factories? Or is it a situation where we need industrialization to come back but you personally are not willing to see it through?


I mean, is the poster in question a senior robotics engineer? Because that's whose going to be working in any factories that open. Maybe they'll have some security guards and janitors, I guess


So you agree that we are not deindustrialized. Have a nice day.


We really shouldn't though.

Cargo culting "manufacturing jobs" isn't actually a plan.

(I also notice nobody is talking about bringing back switchboard jobs or typing pool jobs)


By looking at where things are made rather than by using hedonic adjustments to multiply up INTC revenue until it hides the problem (or whatever the strategy is today now that INTC is flagging).


Right, doing that shows US industrial output to be at its highest level ever.


Oh, you're one of the people who believes the "Made in America" stickers. That explains a lot.


Made or assembled?


I mean, both? We actually track this stuff, you know? Or at least we did until DOGE fired everybody who does that


Then what is the breakdown between products manufactured here and those merely assembled?


Assembly is one example of manufacture, so that distinction isn't really the one you think it is. Output is tracked by value added, so the mythical "car comes missing a single bolt which gets added in Flint" doesn't really show up in the output numbers, if that's your worry.


Do you think that's a reasonable way to measure abd report manufacturing output?

Is laying our heads at the GDP idol's feet a reasonable measure of what these activities contribute to national welfare?


GDP is a pretty good measure of national incomes and, yes, I think income is a good number to look at if you're judging welfare.


Do people actually believe this? Maybe industrial output according to some cooked up numbers or specific industries.


Yes. People are very good at rationalizing self-serving beliefs. Here's how the numbers were cooked:

https://qz.com/1269172/the-epic-mistake-about-manufacturing-...


Interesting, so basically no growth since 2007 if you exclude computers, even with increased productivity. And the drop in employment is insane and it's no wonder that there is a huge political movement with fixing that as a pillar. Not even to mention regional problems that have been going on longer in the Rust Belt. Yeah I find it pretty disgusting when workers in service based industries like here have no sympathy for the workers in these industries.


What made-up numbers are you using to pretend it's not true?


I'm not the one making unbelievable statements. Were you one of those people who said there was no inflation at all until the last possible moment?


Here, US manufacturing output is up 50% since 2010: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...

That it's relative share in GDP is down during that time means that other sectors were growing even faster (think Google, Netflix and so on, so services instead of things). That the service sector gains in relative importance is actually a sign of an advanced economy, every modern economy looks like that, not just the US.


In the end, the problem is that China manufacturing output is $4.6 trillion according to those numbers while the US is $2.5 trillion, while it was around the same back in 2010. This, along with its decline in percentage of GDP is causing the perception, and it also is causing decline in employment in manufacturing. The perception matters ideologically and the employment issues matters materially, and so we have these tariffs as an effort to bring manufacturing back to the US.


Pretty big goalpost shift from "who believes these cooked up numbers" to "perception matters."


The numbers are cooked up. See https://qz.com/1269172/the-epic-mistake-about-manufacturing-... from above.

Basically if you ignore computers, there was zero growth in manufacturing sector. If you take computers into account but ignore processing power increase, there was zero growth. So pretty much the only driving force in the manufacturing sector for the last 20 years was Intel, AMD, Nvidia. This is even with the increased productivity per person in manufacturing sector (so there was also massive reduction in employment).

It is highly concerning and the numbers were very much cooked up.


So provide any measure by which US manufacturing output has declined. Good luck!


You're both making claims. How about either one of you provides some actual numbers? (Or rayiner, for that matter...)


Google is free (for now), but if you need a link:

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...


It is. But it's really a lousy conversation to have you two going back and forth several times, with each of you asking the other to substantiate their position, and neither of you actually doing so.


We lost 6 million manufacturing jobs over the past decade.


Jobs is not the same as production. Many of the jobs are lost due to automation. If you bring manufacturing back to the US you’ll be “hiring” a lot more robuts than humans.


So? Manufacturing is not a jobs program. The output is what matters.

You might as well say we "de-agriculturized" because we automated farming.


Um, by picking and choosing what goods need protection in the long term?

Like, we can't make more fish. Avocados take a few years to grow new trees. Steel mills don't just appear in Ohio.

The worst part is that, even if you believe Donny, he's so mercurial with these tariffs that no one is going to give you a loan to do anything about any of this. This Katy Perry doctrine [0] he's established is just poison to any sort of capital investment. You've got no idea if any of these tariffs will make it to Monday, let alone to the time it takes the mortgage on your t-shirt factory to be paid off. And then you've got a new administration in four years and no idea if they will keep that protection for you either. How are you going to plant a whole vineyard and get it profitable in 4 years when grape vines take 7 years to mature to fruit bearing?

There's no point to any of this, even if you believe him.

[0] 'Cause you're hot, then you're cold You're yes, then you're no You're in, then you're out You're up, then you're down You're wrong when it's right It's black, and it's white We fight, we break up We kiss, we make up


Overall I agree, but I'm not sure there's literally no point. American primary producers will likely benefit - people who own mines, oil wells, farms, etc., and some American manufacturers too as long as they source enough of their raw materials from within the US that the price hikes on resources from overseas don't bite them too much. Still an overall loss that will be borne by American consumers, but a small section of the population who are already wealthy will greatly benefit...


The point is, as this Senator explains, not economic, but to gain leverage over companies and countries:

https://bsky.app/profile/chrismurphyct.bsky.social/post/3llu...

"Do _____ and maybe we can cut you some slack on the tariffs"

If there is a point and it's not just absolute stupidity.


I think he's on to something, but then I come back to Hanlon's Razor: Never assume conspiracy when stupidity will do.

Sure, they might be trying to do this. But I'd give that a ~3% chance.

There is no 'there' there.

They are 'burning down your house to cook a steak.'

The emperor has no clothes.

There are many more ways to say it, but as truly unbelievable as my mind keeps insisting it is, these people are just plain-jane morons.


Fair points. I go back and forth.


I genuinely thought his cabinet was at least competent, they have credentials like they are at least, but then fucking Signal happened and made it obvious what they actually are:

The exact same kind of fail-upwards, born on third thinking they hit a triple, grindset grifter, loser mid-level management nepobabies.


> The exact same kind of fail-upwards, born on third thinking they hit a triple, grindset grifter, loser mid-level management nepobabies.

Could not have put it better myself.

Welcome back.


> people who own mines, oil wells, farms, etc.

Huge swaths of midwestern farmers will go bankrupt if tariffs are imposed. Subsidies and exemptions are being specifically added to prevent the complete collapse of multiple red state economies due to the harm from the tariffs.

Even things like oil and mines aren't guaranteed safe, because of complexities around where refineries are, loss of export market, or weakness of dollar offsetting any nominal gains when looking at actual purchasing power.


Exactly, tariffs may be a wise way to protect parts of your industry that need protection and investment. The Chinese for example have been using this tactic for decades. But you need to choose which sectors to invest in. The way Trump is doing is nothing more than an instant devaluation of the dollar purchasing power.


The problem is it's economically illiterate. Trade deficits aren't bad in themselves - they can be a sign that you're getting a good deal. Consider the case where a country with low wages exports raw materials to the US, and doesn't buy back as much from the US. This is the situation for lots of poorer countries who are exporting cheap raw materials to the US, and the US gains from these situations. Trump's policy simply makes all these raw materials more expensive.

Another way of reducing trade deficits would be to make Americans so poor that they can't afford to buy things from overseas. Eliminating trade deficits in itself isn't a rational economic goal.

Having said that, American manufacurers on average will likely benefit (though maybe not if their raw materials are too much more expensive), but this benefit will only come at the cost of American consumers, who are denied cheaper options from overseas by the tariffs


You’re calling Trump “economically illiterate,” but what you’re saying will happen is exactly the motivation of Trump’s policy. He just thinks it’s a good thing rather than a bad thing.

Trump’s bet is that the upsides will be borne disproportionately by his base, while the downsides will be borne disproportionately by Democrats’ laptop-class base. It’s not irrational to think that will be the result.


How will adding a tax to every single consumer good benefit his base?


Because the taxes will encourage shifting production to the U.S.


How much do production workers get paid in China? How will our production goods be affordable at American labor rates? This strategy just makes everything more expensive - nothing cheaper.


Exactly and even if it does work to reshore factories (which will take years and we'll just ignore the question of where all the workers for these factories will come from, and that the goods needed for making those factories are also being tariffed) they'll only be competitive in a protected market so they're only really producing for the US market which will be stunted because costs would have inflated through the roof!


Not to mention these are blanket tariffs, not protecting specific American industries. So anything that's not feasibly produced here will be more expensive anyway.

Yes everybody, we are taxing all of your groceries - but all of those American coffee and banana farms (!) will be protected.


Sorry, who is saying that this will make things cheaper? I haven’t seen Trump or Vance argue this.


I mean, a large point of their campaign was that price increases were a major national concern, right? Can we agree that they repeatedly made that point? I recall many lawn signs to that effect.

So given that, I would have assumed that this administration would focus on making things more affordable. Instead, I'm seeing people try to explain to me that, actually, raising the prices across the board is a good thing!

To put it plainly, it seems like the administration raising prices is, in fact, not a good thing for Americans. And I don't see how American labor can produce things that are more affordable than what we can buy now. So it seems like a net negative, because ultimately they are choosing to make everything more expensive for consumers.


J.p. morgan is predicting 1.5% higher price index due to these tariffs. Even if that continues all four years, it’ll be much less than Biden.


Lots of time to make up for causing the largest market drop since COVID as well. Hopefully you're right and everything will be fine.


What kind of financing has Trump made available so that the average American company (companies of what 5-20 people) can setup multi-hundreds of millions of dollars mining operations, smelters, manufacturing plants? Because it's gonna be a stretch for the average 5-300 person factory around me to vertically integrate into a billion dollars of supply chain infra business.


Trump did decent in the rust belt. Many of them have lost their good paying manufacturing jobs. If, and this is a big if, we can bring back manufacturing in the US they can get their jobs back.


If I'm company leadership, I'm not doing anything but trying to limit damage while this guy's in office. His tariffs can turn on a dime- his petulance is business poison.


What is the time scale we are talking about when we talk about this change?


GM announced they are going to hire some temporary workers and expand overtime for existing workers before the end of this month.

I'm sure there are more companies, but that is all I've seen so far.


What plan has Trump put in place to built the infrastructure needed for this? What funding available to businesses? Oh none you say.


I don't think it's his base that will benefit. More the owners of factories, mines, oil wells, etc.


Trump also thinks imports subtract from GDP.


> You’re calling Trump “economically illiterate,”

I mean he's gone bankrupt 6 times including managing to bankrupt a casino a business where on average people give you money to get less money in return... He also confuses simple economic terms like equating trade deficits with tariffs.


I was just talking last night about how ironically the things Trump is doing fall not to far from what Bernie bros have dreamed of. Heavy tariffs and no income tax is pretty much the conservative version of liberal hand outs.


What do they expect to happen if the heavy tariffs either move the manufacturing of those products to the US or make the imports expensive enough that consumers switch to domestic manufacturers?

That tanks the revenue from the tariffs, which would make them an ineffective replacement for income tax.


Consider actual tariffs? A trade deficit isn't a tariff or trade barrier it's just the natural flow of commerce from them selling more stuff than they buy. They're dressing it up like these countries are charging US imports these crazy tariffs but they're not at all, especially not across the board.

That's imminently doable but would require more work than plugging in 2 numbers from the US trade delegation website so we get this complete lie instead. Trump has had it in his head for ages that trade deficit == tariff (or is lying about that to make his supporters swallow this as the US just fighting back) and it's a completely broken understanding of trade.


> Consider actual tariffs? A trade deficit isn't a tariff or trade barrier it's just the natural flow of commerce from them selling more stuff than they buy

That’s just defining what a trade deficit is, it doesn’t explain why trade deficits arise. For example, other countries have cheaper labor and laxer environmental regulations. Simply looking at the country’s tariff rates on U.S. goods doesn’t account for the whole picture.


Other countries also have different population numbers. To take a random example, why would e.g. Uruguay (population 3.5M) buy as much from the US (population 100x) as the US is able to buy from them?

Besides, if the trade volume is what determines the tariff, why would any country want to have a trade surplus with the US? The best solution for other countries is to artificially limit their exports, or find more reliable trading partners.


On the face of it that sounds reasonable, but then you look at say China with a 35x population over Canada yet Canadians don't just buy as much from China as vice-versa, they buy CAD$65 billion more. So I don't think the argument that larger countries necessarily have a deficit against their smaller trading partners holds water.

I do agree that this madness will only encourage other countries to conduct their trade elsewhere.


> Other countries also have different population numbers. To take a random example, why would e.g. Uruguay (population 3.5M) buy as much from the US (population 100x) as the US is able to buy from them

Because the U.S. can buy from Uruguay only as much as 3.5 million people in that country can produce.


First we don't import any where near all of Uruguay's exports, in fact we're only about 8% of their actual exports which should tell you this isn't the reason we buy more from them than they do from us.

Next that's always going to be imbalanced because they produce goods cheaper and can't afford as much as the equivalent chunk of people in the US.


So, we aren’t factoring in natural resources and the different values they have either then?


Yeah sure, Europe is absolutely known for their lax environmental regulations…


GP said other countries, not "Europe". And Europe does have cheaper labor. Even in western europe you can find a 5x-10x difference in certain salaries especially in white collar industries.

Assume good faith.


> cheaper labor and laxer environmental regulations

So we've exported our worst paying, most environmentally damaging industries? I mean the rivers catching fire was probably exciting but I'm not exactly pining to bring that back...

Tariffs can only set those industries up for internal markets, other countries will just continue to buy from the cheaper source so the protected industry has to continue to be protected.

Additionally who's going to work these labor intensive industries? We're already at 4.1% unemployment, there's not vast masses of people waiting for low paying work as seamstresses and one of the other major prongs of the Trump ideology is reducing immigration drastically so we're going to squeezed on that end too.

Finally we've done mass tariffs before and it always ends badly. Remember Smoot-Hawley? it deepened the Great Depression because people thought they could turn to protectionism to prop up and bring industry to the US. It just doesn't work when broadly applied.


It’s been our turn for a hot minute. Republicans have been blowing up the status quo since Reagan, and the Democrats enforcing austerity since Clinton. American corporate leadership is excellent at hitting quarter-after-quarter KPIs for bonuses and share price growth, but there’s ample data it has all come at the expense of workers - increased precarity, decreased wages, increased costs of everything, as the country is plundered down to its core and sold off piecemeal.

Post-Carter United States (and South Korea, and Japan, and the UK, and much of the developed world in general) is a prime example of the follies of prioritizing numbers-on-a-spreadsheet growth in the short term, over a balanced and robust domestic economic engine that ensures a healthy, happy, stable populace that wants to have kids (since they have the money and time to be good parents).


Clinton was the last fiscally responsible President, using a strong real economy to pay down some of the debt which had service costs equal to the costs of US federal debt today. You can't criticize that given how high the debt was in the 1990s.


> Clinton was the last fiscally responsible President, using a strong real economy to pay down some of the debt

The Clinton social program cuts combined with the Bush II tax cuts is what gave us the poor distributional effects of the 2001-2008 expansion, which both set the stage for and magnified the impact on all but the narrow slice at the top of the Great Recession; while they seemed harmless in the unusually strong boom economy they were implemented in, monentary nominal budget balance acheived that way has had massive adverse long term effects.

It also, contrary to your claim, didn't pay down any of the national debt, which increased by at least $100 billion every year of the Clinton presidency.


I can when he did so not through raising revenue, but by gutting social safety net programs.

If you have a debt problem, you need to both raise income and cut unnecessary spending. Clinton - and every Democrat since Carter, really - only ever did the latter, and always targeting the working class for spending cuts as opposed to the corporate or wealthy classes. God forbid we curtail subsidies to fossil fuel companies or sugar producers or big box stores with a disproportionate amount of workers on government assistance programs, god forbid we stop bailing out failed banks or bankrupt private enterprise, let’s instead make sure poor people can’t have housing and children can’t have three meals a day.

Throwing large numbers around without examining how those numbers were achieved is what politicians and despots bank on the populace trusting, because once you know how those figures are reached, you’re confronted with how the system really works and suddenly have a distaste for it.


> What still baffles me is how people act like this was some kind of thoughtful decision.

I'm no economist, but I can see that there are second order effects that this addresses that other systems would lack.

1) Tit for tat on tariffs doesn't work because of other barriers to trade such as currency manipulation, subsidies, regulations, etc.

2) We've learned from games such as iterated prisoner's dilemma that strategies that succeed are ones that clearly communicate how they'll act and respond. A clear formula such as deficit/imports accomplished this. Countries know exactly what they must address in order to access US markets.

3) You can end up playing whack a mole with countries in that they can set up shop in other countries to bypass tariffs in their own country. By applying a consistent formula to all countries, you no longer have to play whack a mole.


Then why not just set a flat 10%? Why gut the industrial subsidies? Why gut state capacity?


It seems thoughtful if you or your children or your friends are heavily invested in crypto and think removing the USD as the primary currency of trade is a good idea.

I know it's a Republican joke to blame evil meddling globalists for the US's problems but it sure seems like a bunch of people looking to ruin the US for their own global ambitions are running the show right now.


Every accusation is an admission when it comes to Republicans.


Luckily the US has quite some momentum so it can be hoped the damage is limited before the next election so it can then be reverted.


In this case it's much much worse than just incompetent. You're looking at someone who takes an evil delight it doing the opposite of what smart people say to do, and destroying stuff.


This is what forced me vastly curtail my news consumption for the most part. I can only take so much breathless reporting about the "strategy" of the Trump administration, when it's plainly sheer incompetence with the winds of malice in the background. There is no actual plan to "make America great again", it's non-stop incompetent pandering to a base that just wants others to suffer.


This has been termed "sane washing" and is extremely irritating: smart media people reverse engineering a vaguely plausible logic from the regime's actions when on closer inspection they never gave said logic as their reasoning.


> What still baffles me is how people act like this was some kind of thoughtful decision

Maybe it's the "Why not inject disinfectant to beat covid" [1] for the economy. But this time nobody around him said no. (note: added around him)

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52407177


Loads of people are actually actively saying no. Those in power have goals that don’t comport with listening.


[flagged]


It isn't the "view" that's criticized but the method to fix the problem. Just like the "injecting bleach" method.


There are other solutions to trade deficits.

To cure trade deficits imposing tariffs is rather like injecting bleach yes.


The nerds have been talking about fixing trade deficits for decades. It keeps getting bigger. Time for the jocks to give it a try.


Interesting analogy, coming from HN's own personal version of Ian Miles Cheong.


Yes, let's let the jocks into the chemistry lab. This will end well.


Plenty of us knew the outcome would be catastrophic. We were outvoted by the idiots.


Also you were outvoted because the Dems didn't have a reasonable alternative. Mrs Harris was incompetent. She was a poor public speaker, which further made her look incompetent given her previous role as a prosecutor. Further, the Dems didn't offer her as part of an open primary. They forced her on everyone.

The US presently suffers from future shock and stilted political process. We need more parties and better voting options both in the HR department and the mechanical process like ranked voting.

Since both parties benefit from the status quo, we shall see no change.


My cat is a reasonable alternative to the current potus. Sometimes, the people get what they deserve.


> Further, the Dems didn't offer her as part of an open primary.

The only people promulgating this red herring would never have voted for her anyway.

> She was a poor public speaker,

Compared to Trump? A man known for his incoherent ramblings?


Agree with paragraph 2.

Paragraph 3 is a cynicism I don't yet fully buy: There are enough liberals and so-called Democrats that care about this country that perhaps they will be open to ranked-preference voting and the opening of our "political markets" to save the country.

Partial on paragraph 1. Biden should have left a lot sooner, and Harris, loyal to the president and unable/unwilling to break with him on anything of value, should not have been the "pick".

But she was and is infinitely better for this country than Trump in every manner, unless we're into accelerationism. I don't think she is incompetent. She was unwilling.


I'm really do appreciate all those on HN who comment either for or against these tariff measures by including cogent arguments and relevant facts. As against ...


There’s been many people opposed to free trade for decades, on both sides like Pat Buchanan and Bernie Sanders. You can think those guys are incorrect in their analysis, but calling it “mindless” is just ridiculous.

This tariff regime is simply a “minimal viable product” aimed at the idea of reducing structural trade deficits.


My theory is that it actually has nothing to do with trade at all--why else would the story changes so much when they are asked to describe the methodology or rationale?

This is how they cut taxes without cutting taxes. They've even said as much: "We'll do this huge tax cut and revenue from tariffs will pay for it." But tariff revenue IS tax. It's just a tax on spending versus income. It's quite clever because a tax on spending disproportionately impacts the poor and the middle class (who spend a much higher percentage of their income).


Yes and: IIRC, their intent is to bolster the US dollar as the reserve currency.

Not that I understand it, cuz am noob:

Admin thinks US dollar is too strong. So they want to devalue it. Which will then trigger a sell off of US Treasuries, further devaluing the US dollar.

I have no idea if this is the Admin's actual plan, the merit of such a plan, or if there's any realistic hope for achieving the intended outcome.

If any one can make any of this make sense, please chime in. TIA.


Devaluing the currency is a standard approach to encouraging an export-oriented economy. See China and Japan.


Sanders might impose tariffs, but he would be smart enough to realize that if trade deficits need to be reduced what matters is reducing the deficit on the aggregate trade, not reducing the deficits individually with each trade partner.

Trump is treating each country as a separate issue and wants to reduce the deficits with each of them. That's completely stupid because even if every country got rid of all trade barriers and protectionism there would still be deficits with some countries and surpluses with others because different countries need to import different things.

For example say country A needs some natural resource that they have no domestic supply of, so they import that from country B. A uses that to produce goods for their own use and for export.

Country B's biggest need is some other resource that they lack, so they use the money they get from selling their resource to A to buy the resource they need from C.

In this scenario A runs a trade deficit with B and there is nothing whatsoever wrong with this.

The whole freaking point of money is to make it so you can trade for goods without having to have goods of your own that the other party wants.


In economic terms, its a transfer from consumers of cheap goods to producers.


Just posting something doesn't make it true. Don't be disingenuous by making it seems like Sanders supports this idiotic "plan" just because he spoke out in favor of certain tariffs or against parts of free trade in the past.

In fact he called these tariffs along with Trump's plan to cut taxes on he wealthy an absurd transfer of wealth:

> Trump's absurd idea to replace the income tax with a sales tax on imported goods would be the largest transfer of wealth in U.S. history. If enacted, taxes would go up by over $5,000 a year for a middle class family, while those in the top 0.1% would get a $1.5 million tax break.

https://xcancel.com/BernieSanders/status/1850933809384137106

And Trump's economic plan "insane"

> https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/bernie-sanders-...

Many agree, most polls have Trump far underwater in his handling of the economy.

> Respondents gave Trump poor marks for his handling of the economy, which 37% approved of, with 30% approving of his work to address the high cost of living, an issue that also dogged Biden.

https://www.reuters.com/default/trump-approval-falls-43-lowe...


Sanders was a protectionist until it became seen as treasonous in Democrat circles: https://sandersinstitute.org/event/rep-bernie-sanders-oppose...


Again, just because Sanders would support some protectionist policies doesn't mean he supports the tariffs going on now. He's on the record saying they're a regressive sales tax benefiting the wealthy.

Which is why I was pointing out your comment is disingenuous by insinuating Sanders would support the tariffs because it's anti-free trade.


Protectionism is usually about protecting existing jobs and industries.

This idea of blanket tariffs to try and kickstart industries is unique.


You're really driving home this "Hey everyone, Trump is just doing exactly what Pat Buchanan and Bernie Sanders agreed to do".

This is the equivalent of saying that any anti-war protester is instantly a complete ideological pacifist. It's illogical.

I challenge you to find a policy paper endorsed by Sanders that said "let's do universal tariffs on the entire planet by taking the inverse of our trade balance - and leave Russia out of it".

Everyone knows tariffs are a tool, often meant to encourage domestic production (when applicable and feasible) or to protect against unfair foreign trade practices.

They do not work as a permanent source of revenue in the modern era, and they can never operate as both a strong source of revenue AND a tool for repatriation of production. If they work as revenue, that means production stays foreign. If they work as incentive, they will diminish in revenue.

Nothing about this makes sense unless your goal is to tear down the US and the USD as a global economic power and global reserve currency. This is not about making America strong.


> What still baffles me is how people act like this was some kind of thoughtful decision.

It is. This is being done as part of a plan, with full intent.


I wonder how much more evidence American people need to see Trump for being a Russian asset and working against US interests.

We are in treason territory.


People that support him don't care about evidence. It's a cult following.


Authorities focused on "classic" terrorism when monitoring online content and propaganda and got completely blindsided by the take over of the media.

I find it particularly interesting how many popular US media people disseminate provably false Kremlin propaganda, as if someone flipped a switch.

Fascinating times.


They knew about it back in 2014 but Obama didn't do enough about it.


You could not have designed a more effective version of a “Manchurian Candidate” in my opinion.

In fact, this administration has been so effective and brazen that if you were to try and write this as fiction, the scope and scale of what is occurring would be deemed unbelievable and would require toning down for the audience.


>and working against US interests.

>We are in treason territory.

Are we just going to start throwing "treason" accusations whenever a political opponent does the wrong thing? Being anti-free trade? Hurts US hegemony and makes US consumers pay more. Treason. Being pro-free trade? Sells out hard working americans while enriching corporations. Treason.


Propaganda and lead poisoning did a number here.

It's the perfect storm.

I don't see an end to this


The best thing about your comment is you could be referring to Trump, or the GP. 9 out of 10 people who read your comment will say "hell yeah" and think you agree with them whether you do or not.

Brilliant.


The people who know what the effects of lead poisoning are, know :D


Well, enough of some Americans elected a convicted felon to the Oval Office, so...


Russia noticeably absent from the global and per-country tariffs


Trump is allegedly planning on sanctions against Russia if they do not agree to his peace plan.

Trump just added some additional sanctions on Russia for helping the Houthis.

Sanctions seem worse than tariffs to me, but I'm not an expert.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-sanctions-russia-based-n...


He didn't add sanctions on Russia, but on people dealing with Russia - that's a different thing.

But notice how people talk now - Trump might say he is "planning" something against Russia and people take it as a proof that he is not an asset. They forget about concept of sacrificing something to gain advantage. If heat turns to much on Trump, they might let him disrupt something and then run propaganda that Trump isn't bent. Until he makes next move massively benefitting Putin.

Seems like they can be doing this over and over and general public will see it as Trump just navigating difficult geopolitical landscape and that we should "trust the process". etc.


I am not sure why you are calling this out seeing how many people are hypothesising what is going to happen in this thread (economy destroyed, USD no longer reserve currency, etc). At least we have actual words to base what I wrote unlike all the other theories being thrown out in this thread.


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Sure you can wrap it in fancy words, but most people who understand tariffs can see it for what it is.


I’m not wrapping it in “fancy words.” I’m pointing out there is a real policy here, not something Trump made up to make Putin happy.


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You're using "whataboutism" to point fingers and say one side is worse because of this or that. I could do the same thing and say Hillary's emails don't matter because Mike Waltz is out there using Gmail to conduct official business. https://www.axios.com/2025/04/01/mike-waltz-signal-gmail-sec...

To solve this we will all have to come together and accept that nobody on either side of American Politics are on the side of the working class. Instead of pointing fingers at democrats or republicans it is beyond time for us as Americans to come together and vote in people that will work for us as a collective regardless of what political affiliations they have.


> This combined with her running her own mail server and sending government emails through it should have landed her at least in jail for a couple of years.

I'm guessing you're cool with the current regime's handling of sensitive information, yeah?


> But lets focus on someone trying to avoid war with Russia at all costs and attempting to make peace.

So instead you want to give Putin the population of Ukraine to send in to get slaughtered as soldiers for his next invasion, and also send in Americans to get killed in Canada, Mexico, and/or Greenland? A++ very peaceful no notes.


See, that's what a 2-parties system does to one's brain. Trump can be bad, and many other things can be bad at the same time, without causation. If that's enough to distract from the bigger picture, you do not qualify as a voter.


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You are spreading disinformation. The FBI investigations into Russia collusion were separate from Mueller's special counsel investigations, Mueller's work did not refer to the Steele Dossier at all.

https://www.acslaw.org/projects/the-presidential-investigati...

Mueller's key findings include

- Uncovering extensive criminal activity on the part of Trump associates

- that Russia engaged in extensive attacks on the US election system in 2016

- that there were numerous links between the Russian government and the Trump campaign

- that there were multiple episodes in which Trump engaged in deliberate obstruction during the investigation

If you are taking Trump's "no collusion, complete exoneration" at his word, understand that he was lying. The report literally used the phrase "does not exonerate", and the only reason Trump was not indicted was because of the DOJ policy that you can't indict a sitting president.


Wait, all you have to support the extraordinary claim that "Trump is a KGB agent" is that... Russian bots with 50 followers retweeted some pro-Trump posts ? Seriously ? That's ALL that the anti-Trump administration could find after years of trying to nail him ?


Without the Steele dossier, "Krasnov" has seen lots of attention. Now stir that with the absolute bizarro behavior of Trump around Russia/Putin.

There may not be hard evidence of a fire, but there is so much smoke I choke on it.


It's not bizarre, it's pretty much in line with the stance that the West has had with Russia since the 90s, even with Bush junior in the early 2000s, before the rise of the neocons.


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Don’t smear kids in the hall this way. You realize they are Canadian, right?


I'll have someone else respond for me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0IWe11RWOM


On the Sam Harris podcast you can listen to a great interview with Anne Applebaum that goes in to some detail about the relationship between various US and RU politicians. There's a lot more to it than the Steele dossier.


I can fully understand how people on both the left and the right could have ideological differences with Trump, how they can hate the way he interacts with people, think he's picking unqualified cronies for high level jobs, etc. I disagree with the last one but I can at least see how a reasonable person would get to that conclusion.

"Trump is committing treason because he is instituting tariffs" or "Trump is a Russian asset" is not a position any reasonably intelligent person can come to without being blinded by partisanship. It's simply not a serious position to have.


At least some of his appointments make perfect sense as well (Tulsi, RFK, Bhattacharya)


If Trump were a Russian asset, what could he possibly do to advance their interests more than what he is already doing? Hell, he is running Putin's playbook on Canada and Greenland. Did you vote for that?

NATO is already over because none of our allies can expect Trump to honor our treaty obligations.


Regardless of what his intentions might be which are all speculations as far as I'm concerned, he managed to convince Europe to rearm in 1 month, which is a net positive for Europe and America (assuming America still sees that as a positive) and a massive blow for Russia.


How about stopping to supply Ukraine with weapons?



Considering there's nothing stopping him really, what does "trying" mean exactly?


By that I mean he did it, briefly, then probably got a lot of push back internally and rolled it back. The whole event seemed like a chance to drum up an excuse to drop support for Ukraine, but ultimately wasn't enough of a reason to present.

I don't really see another way to take that. Have you watched the full exchange on it?

And I mean his first impeachment was because of his impounding of aid to Ukraine.

Acting like he hasn't been working towards killing support for Ukraine is ignoring his actions and his own statements.


> If Trump were a Russian asset, what could he possibly do to advance their interests more than what he is already doing?

Rhetoric is a poor substitute for actual evidence.

Many moons ago, the fringe right used a similar argument to imply that Barack Obama was pro-ISIS. After his hasty withdrawal from Iraq, ISIS filled the power vacuum. Their "caliphate" grew for years and years, with no significant intervention from the US! At the time there wasn't a great answer to the question "If Obama were pro-ISIS, what could he possibly do to advance their interests more than he already has?". Yet (hopefully) we all know that this was simply bad faith, conspiratorial rhetoric. He was obviously not pro-ISIS, and there was no evidence whatsoever that he was. So how could people possibly have entertained such an idea? Easy--they already hated Barack Obama, so they were willing to give the conspiracy theory the benefit of the doubt.

Do yourself a favor and apply the old tried and true standard: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. It'll save you a good deal of embarrassment.


Have you seen Obama disseminating ISIS propaganda?


Your conspiracy theory isn't coherent enough to be implied. Make the argument.


Trump and his administration do spread Kremlin falsehoods and talking points. This was a major sticking point in Gabbard's confirmation. For instance, she spread the false claim that Ukraine was developing bioweapons that are a threat to Russia. Trump himself repeated the false claim that Zelensky has a poor approval numbers and is preventing elections because he's a dictator. Trump also said Ukraine started the conflict. In his last admin he said that "Crimeans want to be Russian".


>Gabbard

Tulsi isn't Trump.

> Zelensky

Trump quite reasonably called Zelensky a dictator. Ukraine can legally skip elections while under martial law, sure. But seeing as Zelensky has the power to end martial law at any time, he is single-handedly preventing Ukranian elections, depriving the people of Ukraine of their voice during what is potentially the most pivotal span of time in Ukranian history. Surely you still call Putin a dictator, even though he attained his status without directly violating the constitution?

> Trump also said Ukraine started the conflict.

Are you referring to that time Trump uttered the words "you never should have started it" in one of his word clouds while speaking to a journalist? That is evidence that he is in thrall to the Russians?

> In his last admin he said that "Crimeans want to be Russian".

The vast majority of them are Russian, ethnically and linguistically. All polling prior to the 2014 invasion showed that a significant majority would support annexation by Russia. Don't worry, you can know this fact--and even repeat it out loud!--without the bad men in the Kremlin gaining control over your mind.


> But seeing as Zelensky has the power to end martial law at any time, he is single-handedly preventing Ukranian elections

He doesn't. The president of Ukraine can only propose the imposition or termination of martial law to the parliament. Nothing happens unless the parliament approves the proposal. In February, the Ukrainian parliament even adopted a resolution to remind the dumbasses calling Zelenskyy a dictator of this fact.

> All polling prior to the 2014 invasion showed that a significant majority would support annexation by Russia.

Support for joining Russia was 23% in a 2013 poll, down from 33% in 2011. The majority opinion (53%) was that Crimea should remain as it was, an autonomous region within Ukraine.

  In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea be?   2013   2011
  -----------------------------------------------------   ----   ----
  Autonomy in Ukraine (as today)                            53     49
  Crimean Tatar autonomy within Ukraine                     12      4
  Common oblast of Ukraine                                   2      6
  Crimea should be separated and given to Russia            23     33
  Don't know                                                10      8


He is preserving power by delaying elections, and his party (who control the parliament) is preserving their majority by delaying elections. Many a dictatorship has been kicked off and maintained by strictly legal means with the help of a complicit legislature.

Ukraine should hold elections. Delaying them is bad. This is the pro-democracy position. Calling it "Russian propaganda" is nuts. Pretending that Trump's support of this position is evidence that he is controlled by the Russians is literally insane.

Fair enough--the one poll funded by the American government (through the International Republican Institute) found that Crimea wanted to stay in Ukraine, after 5+ UN polls found 60+% supporting annexation for several years in a row.

Is citing the UN data evidence of Russian mind control? No. Arguing otherwise is insane!


Just yesterday, a Russian missile strike on apartment buildings in Kryvyi Rih killed 19 people (incl 9 children) and injured 72. It was followed by drone strikes that targeted rescue workers. CNN article: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/04/americas/ukraine-strike-z... Police bodycam footage: https://bsky.app/profile/kateinkharkiv.bsky.social/post/3lm3...

Strikes like these occur daily and have become increasingly common in recent months. Holding mass gatherings under such conditions is utterly irresponsible, and any elections held in this atmosphere lack legitimacy because many voters are simply afraid to visit polling stations. Not to mention the millions of people in occupied territories who are completely unable to cast their ballots.

The narrative about Ukrainian elections - especially coming from Russia, which hasn't had free elections since the early 1990s - is indeed pure propaganda. With their progress on the frontlines stalled, this is nothing more than a transparent attempt to undermine Ukrainian unity by diverting attention to internal infighting and potentially replacing the current government with a less functional one. Zelenskyy's main political rivals share the broad consensus that elections should be held only after the war.

Ukraine's situation is a textbook example of why many (if not most) constitutions include provisions for postponing elections during wars and other emergencies.


> Holding mass gatherings under such conditions is utterly irresponsible

Yet they don't ban vital gatherings, like concerts[0]. They only ban elections, for which large gatherings are hardly necessary.

> Zelenskyy's main political rivals share the broad consensus that elections should be held only after the war.

His actual main rival's party was banned. Now you see the leaders of the remaining parties toeing the line as sign of robust democracy? Is this a joke?

https://concert.ua/en/catalog/all-cities/concerts


Obama could have invited ISIS to talks with his security advisor. He could have made any sanctions on them toothless. I'm sure there's more.


> What still baffles me is how people act like this was some kind of thoughtful decision.

I'm afraid it is. An unholy coalition of capitalist-anarchists and ultra-conservatives is the driving force behind it. They both want to reduce the influence of the government to a level as small as possible. That can only be done by dismantling the current federal government.


Dismantling the federal government by massively increasing the role of government in trade and imposing the biggest tax increase in a century?

That doesn't sound right...


The next step is to cut income tax for under $150k/yr earners. Tariffs raise prices by 20%, tax cuts let you keep 20% more earnings.

This would make the federal government dependent on tariff income, and, as the theory goes, diminish the funds the government has as American industry grows to avoid tariffs.

Probably not going to work out as it is only a first order effect view, but that is the idea they are chasing.


Except they aren't cutting taxes by 20% for people under 150k. They are pushing a tax cut which disproportionately affects the top 1%.


Trump has explicitly stated he wants to eliminate income taxes for people earning under $150k.

Ironically (but not really if you can clearly understand his platform, any why so many bernie bros became trumpets), Trump is doing a lot of ostensibly good things for the uneducated working class at the expense of American "elite" class. The autoworkers union president literally spoke yesterday at Trumps event cheering the tariffs. A union, cheering Trump.

The stock market is off a cliff, but how many factory workers actually have an appreciable amount of stocks? Poor middle America doesn't give a fuck about that. They give a fuck about having a place to go to work and make a good living.

Trump is doing what he was elected to do. Whether or not it is possible without making things much worse seems like a long shot, but his core base has a "I don't care if we destroy the system, the system sucks!" attitude, awfully similar to Bernie bros.


While you're not wrong, the two sides (Trump vs Sanders) do have entirely different approaches to reforming the system. The latter would (probably) like more control over production means in the hands of laborers, and sees progressive taxes as a way to support a social state. The former wants top-down control through laissez-faire, and sees reducing taxes as a way to get rid of the state.


Trump has explicitly stated a lot of things he has no intention of doing. Look at what is _actually_ in the bill the republicans are pushing through congress. Where is "no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no income tax on earners under 150k". It's not there.


The GP didn't say the people pushing this were smart or intellectually honest.


Think of it like when you take a car apart and now it's taking up more of the garage then when it was together.


That's what really blows my mind. Growing up as Reagan Republican. When did Republicans go from law-and-order, to anarchists?

Traditionally anarchism is a left-liberal idea. Now the far-right is same as far-left. Left-Right is now a circle.


> Now the far-right is same as far-left. Left-Right is now a circle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory


This is a very strange view of it. Anarchism is extremely far from liberalism. "Anarcho-capitalists" are more or less just extreme libertarians, they share no history or ideology with any other anarchist movements, no other anarchist movements recognize them as anarchists.

The far left and the far right are not the same either where do you even get that! A far left party in the american context is something like democratic socialism, or sure why not actual marxist-leninism. While the far right is proud boys, groypers, literal neonazis, christian integrationists. You may have equal distaste for both but that doesn't mean they share anything else.


"no other anarchist movements recognize them as anarchists."

Once you go down the rabbit whole of trying to define 'anarchist' , there are actually dozens of definitions, and they all argue about who is really anarchist. So, that they don't agree that some other group isn't 'really anarchist', I take it with grain of salt .

These extreme Republicans want to get rid of government. I'm using the highest level gloss over, that No-Government is Anarchism.

I'm sure in reality, humans would re-coalesce up in communes/tribes/feudal groupings, and thus re-form local groups, and is that still Anarchism? At what point of organization do we stop saying something is 'anarchism'. I'm just saying, when the US breaks up because there is no government, it will be anarchy, and that seems to be what Republicans are shooting for..


> Once you go down the rabbit whole of trying to define 'anarchist' , there are actually dozens of definitions

Which is why I avoided providing or using any definition of anarchism, instead describing the actions of people who consider themselves anarchists.

> and they all argue about who is really anarchist.

Yes, but there is only one group who consistently considers themselves anarchists but who exactly zero other anarchist groups recognize as anarchists. All other anarchist movements have at least one mutually-recognized peer movement. I'm not saying this is an absolute or the only definition, but it's very useful in this context. There is something different about ancaps.

> These extreme Republicans want to get rid of government.

They do not! They are not proposing an elimination of the military or police departments or prisons, for example. They are using the DoJ to pursue political enemies, the executive branch to enact and enforce tariffs. In fact exactly the parts of the state that are used to create and enforce hierarchy. I do not know any anarchist movements, other than anarcho-capitalism, that has this goal.

I understand why your view of it is alluring, I find it to be so as well. But I have found that it simply has very little explanatory power for this situation.

The only thing the far left and right truly share I think, is radicalism. By which I mean an intention or acceptance of rapid and comprehensive change to the dynamics of daily life for the whole population. But the actual changes they want have virtually no overlap.


Anarcho-capitalists are not anarchists. They share no history or ideology with any of the other variants of anarchism.

They're extreme libertarians/neo-feudalists.


Yes please, more people spreading this information.


> They're extreme libertarians/neo-feudalists.

The ancient Greeks would have called it Tyranny. All of this has happened before.


How are you not seeing how "extreme libertarians/neo-feudalists" is similar to anarchism?


Anarchists don't want a king. Neo-feudalists want to be the king.


technically they would be closer war lords in my opinion.


extreme libertarian's don't.

Maybe don't put libertarians and feudalist together.


Peter Thiel most definitely wants a form of kingship though he professes to be a libertarian

I believe it means libertarian in the context of present systems. In their new system, they no longer need to be libertarian. Just absolute ruler. King is even the wrong term.

Dictator


I didn't realize. I guess libertarians have morphed into something new.

Can't believe they would be publicly calling for a monarchy, and still call themselves libertarian.


It's not the first time they've hijacked the term. It's a smokescreen because they're aware of how unpalatable their beliefs actually are.


Anarchism is not just “no government”, but rather “no rulers”.

Leftist anarchists are acutely aware that power and capital accumulation go hand-in-hand.

Extreme libertarians are perfectly fine with the unfettered accumulation of capital and seemingly ignore that that results in unchecked power. Or they have faith that a “truly” free economy would somehow check itself before becoming effectively neo-feudalistic or dictatorial. As if the lion would fear the zebra.

Leftist-anarchists want to keep power to an absolute minimum. Usually relying on a combination of culture and group action to wield just enough power to prevent the growth of unchecked power in the hands of a few.

In my mind, culture is the key element. The capital-worshipping, me-versus-all culture we live in would fit quite well into extreme-libertarianism and then it would devolve into defacto rule by a few. (As seems to be happening anyways. Because, again, capital accumulates, protects itself and takes power where it can when no one is willing to or allowed to work together to stop it.)

Leftist-anarchism requires a more mature, selfless, introspective, cooperative culture. Anathema to the “United” States of America.


> Leftist-anarchists want to keep power to an absolute minimum. Usually relying on a combination of culture and group action to wield just enough power to prevent the growth of unchecked power in the hands of a few.

Most anarchists, just like hard-line communists, seem totally opposed to the idea of private capital at all. To me this seems just as bad and unworkable as allowing unchecked use of capital accumulation for political gain.


They are opposed to private capital such as the private ownership of the means of production, eg land and infrastructure.

They are generally not opposed to personal property, especially if the property is actively used.

Extreme libertarians, “anarcho-capitalists”, do not distinguish between productive and nonproductive property. And so they ignore the end result of private ownership and accumulation of the means of production: new rulers in some form.

Opinions on money and currency vary.

Similarly, opinions on wage labor vary, but generally they expect a laborer to receive their full worth, ie wage labor would not see profit extracted from it.


How do you get libertarians mixed in there? Libertarians want freedom from government, not the consolidation of power nor levy of new taxes (which tariffs are). Apart from downsizing select government organizations, what the current administration is doing is the exact opposite of what libertarians would want.


Tariffs are only part 1 of the plan. The next step is cutting income tax entirely for most people. Trump has said this, and even yesterday called on congress to pass his "Big Beautiful Bill".

This would severely hamstring the government, and make it incredibly difficult to reverse (you would need to re-implement income taxes, while removing tariffs, and hope to god that trading partners have mercy and forgiveness (unlikely))


Reagan’s administration was very corrupt. So that law and order evidently didn’t apply to them. It was also very profligate. So that fiscal conservatism didn’t apply to them. I don’t see a lot of difference between the actor Ronald Reagan and the actor Donald Trump. Maybe in degree but not in kind.

I’ve been a left liberal my whole life. We haven’t gone anywhere.


It’s not “anarchism” it’s simply rolling back the bad parts of Reagan’s legacy: free trade, immigration/amnesty, and foreign empire.

When Democrats embraced free trade and globalism with Clinton, most of the liberal Reagan republicans and neocons became Democrats. What MAGA is today is what the bulk of the GOP has always been: a coalition of social conservatives and business owners.


What is so bad about free trade?

Isn't competition in free markets something Republicans believe in anymore? Because forcing Americans to buy inferior locally-made products at a premium through artificial restrictions surely isn't that.

Free trade and globalization are also a pacifying force, by creating mutual dependencies between countries.

Protectionism doesn't work.


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Breitbart is not a reputable source.


No but the point is valid. Say country A decides to protect its environment and hence imposes costly pollution control measures on its manufacturers. Country B meanwhile pollutes to the max. Country B's products are going to be cheaper than country A's. Therefore country A imposing a balancing tarrif on Country B (until they stop polluting) seems at least potentially reasonable.


"Democrats embraced free trade and globalism with Clinton"

History would disagree with this. Republicans and Big Business were always for free trade and globalism.

Because in 80's-90's, big-corp was salivating over that sweet cheap-cheap foreign labor. To put this on Democrats is a retcon.


No, I agree with you. My point is that Democrats embraced it in the 1990s as well. So the Republicans who were otherwise liberals but just in the GOP for the cheap foreign labor switched sides.


> What MAGA is today is what the bulk of the GOP has always been: a coalition of social conservatives and business owners.

I'm skeptical of this historical analysis.

The two major political parties fundamentally realigned during the civil rights era of the 1960s. Before then, Democrats controlled the south. Strom Thurmond switched from Democrat to Republican in 1964. George Wallace ran for President as a Democrat 3 times before he became an independent. Robert Byrd was a Democrat until the end. Who were the "social conservatives"? Both Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon (Californians, by the way) made their names as staunch Cold Warrior anti-Communists during the McCarthy era.

I don't think there's any such thing as what "the GOP has always been", or what the Democrats have always been, for that matter. I'm old enough to have seen the parties change several times, and the definitions of "conservative", "liberal", "left", "right" morph into something unrecognizable to former adherents.

The only constant is change.


> The two major political parties fundamentally realigned during the civil rights era of the 1960s.

This is an incorrect analysis looking at the wrong causal factor (civil rights rather than economics). Even in 1976, Carter did great in the deep south. The realignment happened in the 1980s, due to economic growth in the south. The south went from being poor and agrarian in the 1930s to being newly industrialized in the 1980s.

> Who were the "social conservatives"?

The 19th century GOP was a coalition of religious conservatives and protectionist industrialists. MAGA is a coalition of religious/cultural conservatives and protectionist industrialists.


Carter was from Georgia. Think that might've helped how he did in the south?

Don't think that data point is as good as you imply it is.


> Even in 1976, Carter did great in the deep south.

Carter was a southern conservative, deeply, overtly Christian, whereas Ford, the accidental President, was a northerner and social moderate.

In any case, Presidential elections are not necessarily the best indicator of political alignment. After all, some were blowouts, such as 1972, 1980, and 1984. On other other hand, note that Lyndon Johnson lost much of the south, except his home state of Texas, despite winning big elsewhere in the country. But for political alignment, you also have to look at local elections, such as state houses.

> The realignment happened in the 1980s, due to economic growth in the south. The south went from being poor and agrarian in the 1930s to being newly industrialized in the 1980s.

This makes no sense, because first, the south is still poorer, and second, the political correlation you're implying simply doesn't exist. Why would wealth and industrialization turn a state Republican when that doesn't appear to be the case anywhere else in the country? To the contrary, at present the rural areas are solidly Republican and the urban areas solidly Democratic.

> The 19th century GOP was a coalition of religious conservatives and protectionist industrialists.

I can't say I'm very familiar with the 19th century GOP, and neither of us was alive in the 19th century, but I don't think you've correctly characterized the 20th century GOP. Moreover, I don't think you can characterize "the party of Lincoln" as socially conservative either.


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> You should study the economic history.

> You should read the primary sources from the civil war.

Please refrain from this type of comment. You should know as longtime, prolific HN commenter that they are against the guidelines.

> The gap has closed almost completely.

I don't think that's true. Some random links: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/03/Map_of_s... https://www.cnbc.com/select/average-net-worth-by-state/

In any case, it's a red herring, because again, "the political correlation you're implying simply doesn't exist."

> For most of the 20th century, that was exactly the political dichotomy. Democrats were the party of the urban and rural poor, and urban social liberals. Republicans were the party of business and industry, plus religious conservatives.

This is merely a stereotype, an overgeneralization. The reality is much more complex, and inconstant.

But there's an interesting overlap in your claim: "plus religious conservatives". So what happens when "the urban and rural poor" happen to be religious conservatives?

> In states like Georgia, the first places to turn red where affluent educated collar counties around Atlanta, which were benefitting from metro Atlanta’s economic growth.

Given my skepticism of everything else you've already said, I'm not inclined to take anything without proof, but that's not really the issue here. My objection to your theory is not whether it can explain the political situation in the south but rather whether it can explain the political situation in the rest of the country, and I don't see any evidence that it can. Otherwise it's just cherry-picking.

> Abolition was driven by fundamentalist Christians, especially in the midwest.

Not all religion is socially conservative. There are various sects of Christianity in various parts of the country, each with their own social and political tendencies. The civil rights movement also came out of the church, e.g., the Reverend Martin Luther King, the Reverend Jesse Jackson.

> Remember that we didn’t have DNA in the 1850s, so the notion that the races were equal was a moral assertion, not a scientific one.

It's still a moral assertion.


>> The two major political parties fundamentally realigned during the civil rights era of the 1960s.

> This is an incorrect analysis looking at the wrong causal factor (civil rights rather than economics).

Boy, is THAT ever a contrarian take, verging dangerously close to crank theory. Economics was distinctly in third place as a factor in the political parties' realignment. In first- and second places were the Vietnam War (nationwide) and civil rights (in the South, with race riots and black militarism being a factor nationally).

1. VIETNAM: I came of age during that era. I was very politically aware. My family on both sides had been Democrats for decades. Most of my family switched to the GOP in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Their main driver was dislike for the Vietnam War protestors (and for race rioters).

Most of my family regarded support for the government's war policy as a patriotic duty, even if they happened to harbor doubts about the merits of specific policies. That was true during both the LBJ and Nixon administrations. (The men on both sides of my extended family were pretty much all veterans, from WWII, Korea, and/or the Cold War.)

2. CIVIL RIGHTS: I grew up in various southern states during the 1960s and early 1970s (my dad was military, we moved around). You need to read up on the GOP's so-called Southern Strategy, starting with Nixon's courting of George Wallace voters and continuing with Reagan's dog-whistle support for "states rights," Lee Atwater and the Willie Horton campaign ad for GHW Bush, etc.

A signature moment was when arch-segregationist Sen. Strom Thurmond switched from being a southern Democrat to the GOP — and was welcomed. Sure, other reasons were cited for these switches, but those were mostly window dressing.

The race riots of the mid- to late 1970s, and the publicity attending the Black Panthers, were also a factor in my extended family's switch to the party of "law and order" (the GOP). Example: During the rioting after MLK's assassination in 1968, my dad carried a .45 pistol on his commute to work in downtown Washington D.C. And in our suburban Maryland neighborhood — populated largely by military, CIA, Air America, etc. — my dad and other men on the block loaded up their hunting rifles, put them close to the front door, and gave us kids strict instructions not to touch them. They did that because of rumors that carloads of black rioters were roaring down the streets in white neighborhoods, throwing Molotov cocktails. (That certainly never happened in our neighborhood — or anywhere, AFAICR.) My family members weren't racist, but they regarded obeying the law as paramount.


Business owners don’t like the tariffs either. Even American car companies are being hurt by tariffs on steel and car parts.


It's because the far left and the far right are both made of up of people deeply disaffected by the status quo, and when those people talk they often find that at the very least many of their grievances overlap.

In terms of today's landscape there is a list of things like LGBTQ issues, race, gender equality, abortion, religion, etc., and if you avoid things on that list you'll find a huge overlap between the views of the far left and the far right. Both are broadly opposed to what's popularly called neoliberalism, the post-Reagan/Clinton post-cold-war order, and the reasons for this opposition overlap quite a bit if you again avoid the topics that I listed. From that perspective, blowing up the system is the goal. When they see trade policies like these crash the present system, they view that as a success because they think the current system is such a mistake that it must be smashed.

(I am not making a judgment in this post, just explaining the landscape.)


Correct. The left and right seem like a circle because Pat Buchanan and Bernie Sanders long had a large overlap on issues that have become highly salient today: immigration and free trade.


Capitalist-anarchists are certainly opposed to tariffs - after all, tariffs are just taxes that expand government influence. Protectionism is a left-wing, big-government policy.


The goal would be dismantling the state, and hence (national) tariffs, for good. The people behind it are quite well off, and can bear the tariffs for now. And it's not just capitalist-anarchists. This is a cabal of spiteful people with different goals, but some shared ideas about the scale of government, prepared to use as much force as necessary.

> Protectionism is a left-wing, big-government policy.

It isn't left-wing. Just check the US history of protectionism. Or Germany's. Or the France's. Even the UK's. Or even simpler: look at what happened just now. How can you call Trump left-wing?


> An unholy coalition of capitalist-anarchists and ultra-conservatives is the driving force behind it.

It's called Oligarchy.


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Fair point, but America is getting rid of the parts of government that provide stability across the country and world. I don't see any major changes to the US war machine.

Shutting down USAID, cutting education, health benefits and dismantling the checks on executive power do nothing to curb what criticize. These actions actually destabilize and only give greater chance that what you dislike becomes more prevalent.


[flagged]


A front for destabilization operations by whom? By the NSA, FBI and CIA is who. And no, none of those organizations will be held accountable for their abuses of international aid. Instead, we'll throw the baby out with the bathwater and blame the second-degree manslaughter on "state department" operations.

USAID is not a shadowy cabal, it is not an element of the deep state. It can be corrected, even isolated from harm, by reorganizing their leadership to a board instead a administrative seat. You're just not arguing in good faith, and I really have to wonder why you're falling for talking points aimed at the lowest-intelligence voting bloc.


USAID absolutely is an element of the "deep state" in the countries in which it operates.

Example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZunZuneo

Even if without cover CIA involvement, they operates parallel social services that don't answer to a foreign government to advance a foreign governments priorities.

Every Pakistani I talked to (living in Pakistan) has a negative view USAID and foreign NGOs. Why do you think that would be?


And that was after the US supported Pakistan against Bangladesh. Now you know why my Bangladeshi family isn’t torn up about USAID closing even though we immigrated to America thanks to USAID. India doesn’t seem upset either.


Don’t accuse me of “not arguing in good faith.” My family has vastly more investment in and knowledge of USAID than most of the people reflexively defending “the institutions.” And finding out about its political activities has been red pilling.

It’s naive to think we can clean out the NSA, FBI, and CIA. I’ll take what I can get.


> It’s naive to think we can clean out the NSA, FBI, and CIA.

It's naive to shoot the messenger and think you've killed the message. If USAID is a conduit for the FBI and CIA's wrongdoing, then we haven't actually punished anyone responsible. We're cheering on our own ineptitude, patting ourselves on the back for dismantling a "deep state" on paper, one that still exists with the exact same motives.

If you have any privileged knowledge of USAID that proves me wrong, I welcome you to share it. It sounds like we both agree that the real problem is intelligence agencies that would disguise themselves in a Red Cross truck if given the opportunity. But sure, let's demonize the Red Cross instead of the people ignoring the conventions of lawful warfare. They are the issue.


That's why the public should demand their politicians to choose a better path for them and not fall for “we need to destroy the enemy”. When you close your eyes to your country's foreign “misbehaviours” (put it lightly) don't feel shocked when that comes back to you.

When you dismantle a government, which does include judiciary/legislative powers, who is gonna counterweight the executive branch?


You spend too much time listening to "experts" on TikTok.


The clearest evidence of incompetence for all to see is Trump's cabinet from his first term. If they're actively speaking out against him, something is seriously wrong.

> Rex Tillerson on Trump: ‘Undisciplined,’ ‘doesn’t like to read' and tries to do illegal things

Sadly, people didn't vote for Trump so much as they voted for "anti-woke." Or: I am tired of being looked down on and this is my revenge.


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Have I missed the reports of all of these people being charged with fraud?


> So many are quick to accept media narratives without questioning or verifying the facts for themselves.

> All the findings? Publicly available online.

You surely realise you are doing exactly what you criticise here? You are accepting a government propaganda narrative unquestioningly without verifying any facts.

The DOGE claims have been proven false numerous times. Get off your high horse and do some reading.


Nice opinion.


Thank you for confirming that you know how indefensible your viewpoint is.




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