I disagree for many reasons.

1) He led and won the EU elections by a wide margin.

2) Debates are no longer what tips the scale in the elections. Losing a debate is no longer the disqualifier that it once was. See the EU elections where the debates were terrible and not just because of Bardella.

3) This is a new world and Bardella is very good at campaigning on social media and has a very good reach with young people. Other parties besides LFI struggle to talk to people in general.

4) The RN is pretty much leading in all social categories except for retired people who so far had stuck with Macron. That will change as France is bleeding out and needs cash and the current government is going to get it where it can, including from it's most fervent admirers, retired people.

5) Marine Le Pen being sidelined is actually a blessing in disguise. She has worked hard to change the name of the party, change it's image, change it's people, in order to make it more likeable and more modern and by all account she has succeeded.

But there was one thing that always stuck, her name, which represent the past, when her dad ran the party.

Now that she is out, the RN can embrace being "Le Pen" free and some people who did not want to vote for her on principle because of her family history could very well be inclined to support a young, fresh face with 0 political baggage/scandal.

She is the sacrificial lamb, thrown to the wolves and in public they will lament it everywhere but come election time, her name will not be on any pamphlets and the final transformation phase of the party will be completed.

6) TINA (There is no alternative) The French political landscape is frozen in time with the same people doing the same race every 5 years.

The right wing party is basically an appendage to Macron's party at this point, the Socialists are decimated, the other left wing parties will not unite behind JLM due to his controversial views.

The center is going to be split by a civil war in order to decide who will inherit Macron's party as well as his legacy but whoever wins will also inherit the label "more of the same" which sunk Kamala Harris in the US.

Zemmour is now seen as the troublemaker and stands no chance of winning so his supporters will most likely vote for Bardella in the run off.

Bardella is the new kid on the block who will run for the first time and that will generate a lot of buzz, just like when Eric Zemmour ran in 2022.

If we add the votes from all the "far right" parties: RN + Reconquete + NPA, their total is above 40% in the first round according to the latest polls, which is the highest it has ever been.

> The RN always polls high when they can stay silent and represent an easy way to express opposition.

I don't agree with the staying silent part. I think people know by now what the party represents. Less legal and illegal immigration, tougher on crime, better salaries, and so on as it has always been. That is why people vote for them. The rest is small potatoes in comparison.

> Bardella will most likely be skewered alive by any competent opponent

That remains to be seen. Macron won in 2017 just the same. He was not a politician, not a very good debater either and his political stance was murky at best. See the "Yes I am a socialist" bit on TV followed by another bit a while later "No, I am not a socialist"

Novelty can be a good thing and I think the French people are ready for a change. But I guess we will know in two years from now.

Please note that I am expressing my personal views on this issue based on what I have seen and heard from relatives living in France. I personally don't support any of the mainstream candidates so I don't really care who wins or loses.

> He led and won the EU elections by a wide margin.

Can’t be compared to the presidential. EU elections turnout is always extremely low and this is seen as a protest election in France with low impact.

Next year municipal will be the true test and the RN does poorly in polls.

> 3) This is a new world and Bardella is very good at campaigning on social media and has a very good reach with young people.

Young people don’t vote. Turnout is always extremely low. It’s a fairly useless demographic when it comes to winning the election.

> 4) The RN is pretty much leading in all social categories except for retired people

But they still lose in virtually all head-to-head and it’s a two rounds election.

> 5) Marine Le Pen being sidelined is actually a blessing in disguise.

The party is still controlled by the Le Pen through and through however. Heck Bardella is only there because he dated (is dating?) one of Le Pen’s grand daughter.

> 6) TINA (There is no alternative)

There are plenty of alternatives.

You have well liked figures of the center like Villepin and Phillipe biding their time waiting to see which one will be candidate.

The PS will probably soon have new leadership which should shake up the landscape on the left.

The right by taking a hard line approach is eroding the RN base.

Plus there will likely be three or four other far right candidates like last time.

It’s a huge mistake to think things will remain stable so far ahead of the election. See Macron was basically unknown three years before winning.

> I don't agree with the staying silent part.

I don’t see how you can disagree. RN controls nearly a third of the parliament. Do you see them acting as a vocal opposition? Clearly they are not. They have next to zero opinion on anything significant and avoided at all costs putting forward a prime minister.

What you are listing is not really being vocal. That’s selling dreams. Anyone can promise better salaries and less criminality without pushing forth anyway to achieve that. That’s the whole point.

> Can’t be compared to the presidential. EU elections turnout is always extremely low and this is seen as a protest election in France with low impact. Next year municipal will be the true test and the RN does poorly in polls.

It still shows momentum. They would have won the parliamentary elections also if the left had not put their differences aside and campaigned under the same banner however the NFP is breaking apart as we speak and so the left parties will all campaign separately.

Municipals don't mean much. The right wing party LR is extremely well implanted locally but had a colossal defeat in 2022 just like the socialists. Even Macron's party has/had trouble getting elected in local elections but that hasn't stopped him from being elected twice. So I don't think this is a good signal as to who will win in 2027.

> Young people don’t vote. Turnout is always extremely low. It’s a fairly useless demographic when it comes to winning the election.

That is true but they definitely increase the spread of the message of the RN. One thing to consider is that most people who use Facebook for example nowadays are the older generation and they vote in big numbers. The RN is also very good at creating viral content.

> But they still lose in virtually all head-to-head and it’s a two rounds election.

It depends on who they are facing but from the latest polls, it seems that they either have a tie or win/lose by less than a percent so within the margin of error really.

> The party is still controlled by the Le Pen through and through however. Heck Bardella is only there because he dated (is dating?) one of Le Pen’s grand daughter.

I don't think it matters to the people who do not like her. They see Le Pen and they don't vote for her but a fresh new face, well that could just do it.

> There are plenty of alternatives. You have well liked figures of the center like Villepin and Phillipe biding their time waiting to see which one will be candidate.

Villepin has already been in power, people like him but he has a legacy and ticks the box "been there, done that".

Same as Phillipe who was prime minister under Macron and is therefore the face of the so called Macronie in all but name. Unless he figuratively "kills" Macron before the election, how is he going to convince people that he would do things differently?

> The PS will probably soon have new leadership which should shake up the landscape on the left.

The PS is stuck between a rock and a hard place, they can't go further left because the more right wing members will go to Macron's party and they cant go further right because they will lose support of the left wing members of their party.

They are frozen in place. No wiggle room here.

> The right by taking a hard line approach is eroding the RN base.

The right is taking a pretended hard line. So far nothing has come out of it. It's Sarkozy 2.0 which means nothing will happen. Since the right wing parties started moving right in 2007 in order to kill the RN, the RN has not only grown stronger, it now dwarfs the old right wing party.

> Plus there will likely be three or four other far right candidates like last time.

Yes, for sure, most likely Zemmour, NDA, Asselinau and Bardella. But it doesn't matter because the people who vote for parties other than the RN will most likely vote for them in the run off.

> It’s a huge mistake to think things will remain stable so far ahead of the election. See Macron was basically unknown three years before winning.

I don't think that things will remain stable but I also don't see a new Macron emerging anytime soon. Macron came at a time where people wanted change and were tired of the right/left switch happening every 5 years. He was a fresh new face and without political baggage. That ship has unfortunately sailed but what he has done is weakened the old parties and basically created a boulevard for the far-right.

It was hard for Macron to form his center coalition when the country was not as divided as it is now. Today, it is basically an impossible task to recreate this sort of environment.

But in any case, we will see. personally my hunch is that Bardella will squeak by in the run off by less than a percent but who knows really? We have crossed the rubicon and there is no turning back.