Stock market graveyards are full of people that shorted TSLA. I remember reading about people who lost it all because of a TSLA short at least since 2020. The lesson here is that markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.
In those cases, it usually revolved around Tesla releasing either the Model 3 or Y, and they were betting against Musk's execution in general. What wasn't really up for debate (in my mind) was the technological lead or the demand in the marketplace for the car.
Essentially, Tesla was primed in both situations for a huge market they had to themselves: electrified transport.
Now?
- demand is tanking, and the brand is permanently damaged, well, as long as Musk is at the helm.
- competitors are everywhere
- technological moat (with respect to EV drivetrain/construction) is gone. I could argue their cylindrical cells are legacy/semi-obsolete in fact, since IMO pouch cells are superior for LFP/sodium ion, and who knows what solid state will optimally package.
There is also the "first buddy" benefit. The whole thing is being actively rebuilt at a time when Musk has been heading a department which, amongst other things, openly backdoored the treasury. It's pretty uncharted waters.
> The entire stack is based on TSLA valuation, which is going to tank.
But it's not is it. Try looking at the trends long term, not just YTD. It's remarkably stable, trending upwards. Yes it gain a bunch of value from October to January/February, which is has lost. Investors seems to have traded on the "First Buddy" effect, that didn't actually do anything for Tesla, so that value has now been removed and we're back on the original trend line.
How the hell drop in sales and lose of brand value hasn't caused to stock to absolutely tank is beyond me. Is someone artificially keeping the price stable? Do investors see something I don't, or they do just not care?
Yep, I also believe that we will have a Minsky Moment on the entire Muskonomy.
Given his political involvement, I would assume that the maximum end date for this house of cards is the date when Trump is no longer in power - which is less than 4 years away. The real date is probably much sooner, but who knows when ?
But that then means that Musk has a strong incentive to keep Trump (or some replacement that will similarly let him do whatever he wants) in power past these 4 years.
Buying time to get the rocket finished that he will ride escaping his creditors to Mars. That would be a badly written plot even by the standard of cheesy comic books, but somehow it all makes sense from that angle. (no, I don't believe that he would ever get within explosion range of a rocket engine ignition)
IMO this is going to be meteoric in nature. As in the meteor hits the ground.
If the world wasn't perceptibly irrational, I'd short.