an AGI is not going to be able to create the hardware (unless you imagine that there could be some sort of ai controlled replicators that could assemble anything out of atomic units).
And in the new world of commoditized software, branding becomes even more important. After all, nobody ever got fired for buying IBM.
>an AGI is not going to be able to create the hardware
I'm imagining an LLM agent that places an order with TSMC, just like any other design firm would.
>And in the new world of commoditized software, branding becomes even more important. After all, nobody ever got fired for buying IBM.
Seems doubtful. If the cheap option works just as well, why would you pay a bunch more just for the brand?
I don't think brand name alone will sustain anything close to Nvidia's current margins. Look at the "net margin" for industries that are brand-driven such as Apparel, Auto & Truck, Beverages, etc. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile...
If an industry becomes truly "commoditized", brand ceases to matter. Do you know which farm grew the carrots you buy at the grocery store? Do you care? Probably not. That's because carrots are a commodity.
I'm not claiming full commoditization will happen. But the closer we get to that, the more profits will drop.
Why not? AGI can design the chip, send the instructions to TSMC's AGI, and you'll get your chips.
The point is that saying AGI is the reason you shouldn't invest in Nvidia stock because AGI will remove the CUDA moat is just not reasonable. You might as well not invest in anything in that world since AGI can replace anything.
Why not invest in the company most likely to power AGI? If you're anticipating AGI, I think it'd make sense to put at least a bit of money into Nvidia/TSMC.
I don't disagree that it's hard to predict. But the person I'm responding to says CUDA will be nullified by AGI, so therefore, you shouldn't invest in Nvidia.
By that logic, a lot of things will be un-investable and not just Nvidia.
And in the new world of commoditized software, branding becomes even more important. After all, nobody ever got fired for buying IBM.