Tesla is done in Europe for political/cultural reasons. Tesla is done in Asia for competitive reasons but I think that Cybertrucks could be the nail in the coffin for even the most MAGA brainwashed Elon fan, once they drive it…
It is not just political/cultural reasons. There are lots of other EV cars in Europe now (including both European, Korean and Chinese brands). Tesla has also gotten a bad reputation regarding build-quality and service lately, and Tesla's big sudden price reductions in 2023/2024 meant that the vehicles lost a lot of resale value.
But yes; Tesla's primary remaining competitive advantage was its brand -- which Musk has done an amazing job at eroding lately.
Tesla’s build quality was always in doubt but people were willing to overlook this fact. Now only the most ardent fanatics who live in Elon’s reality distortion field, of which I doubt there are many due to his deeply flawed personality, will buy his car.
We are witnessing Elon’s house of cards coming down. Remember Elon Musk has massive loans with Tesla as collateral and a collapse of Tesla’s share price will absolutely affect his other ventures.
Unfortunately probably SoaceX as well. But think medium term this could be a good thing - new space is thriving and do we really need a gorilla in the room?
I think, the consensus is that Tesla would have to be at least as low as around $100-$120/share before there is a margin call on Musk's debt (with Tesla stock as collateral). So it will still have to drop 50% from current levels for the house of cards to start collapsing. But I guess nobody outside Musk and the bankers know the actual price point.
Is it possible -- Yes, but not super likely in the near term.
Why not? Even at 50% of its current valuation, Tesla’s market cap would still be twice as high as Toyotas. Doesn’t sound reasonable to me, considering their sales are tanking…
Tesla is outrageously overpriced as an auto manufacturer.
Most other manufacturers currently have a P/E ratio around 10. Tesla is around 120. Yes, you read that right --- about 12X higher than the competition.
To justify it's current valuation, Tesla would have to capture a majority of the global market and become the world's most popular car brand. It currently has around 12% of the global market.
In my opinion, what Tesla has to offer just isn't that good and is being rapidly surpassed.
The thing is that Tesla isn't priced as car marker, and hasn't been for a long time. People still also talk about Tesla as an AI-company, robot-inventor, battery and solar cell producer, and potential ride-hailing company.
Like you, I don't think it makes sense, but apparently the market sees it differently.
And until that perception changes, I don't think the valuation will drop to less than half.
but that is what the stock market is :) you do not purchase shares on any company because of what they are now (unless P/E ratio is negative :) ), you are investing in the future of the company. I wouldn’t touch Tesla with a wooden stick but you are arguing against basic economics.
Actually, Tesla shareholders are the ones arguing against basic economics.
Tesla is no longer a "growth stock". Most industry observers are predicting a significant decline in sales for the current quarter. There is no reasonable data or even projected data to support a 12x valuation.
at the current evaluation there never was… tesla investors are suckers for elon’s “robo”taxi and humanoid robots and I am sure something “amazing” is coming on the next earnings report :)
Not exactly. Word on the street is that Tesla stock was heavily short-sold at one time, as it was expected to be headed for bankruptcy. When it turned out to not be headed for bankruptcy, those who had shorted were forced to either close their positions (raising the stock price as their demand hit for shares hit the market) or cover (pay to keep their short agreements going) for an extended period of time. But it wasn't a one-time event; as the price rose, and time went on, more of those who'd shorted Tesla found their position untenable, which forced them to finally close, further raising the price.
Elon famously derided the investors who'd caused this situation. He was livid at them, and also at the SEC for allowing what he considered to be unfair, if not illegal, conduct on the part of short-sellers. A stock that is heavily short-sold can have its price drop to the point that financing is difficult to obtain, sounding the death knell for that business. But it looks like that came back to bite shorts when Tesla survived.
This is definitely a bit of a crackpot theory without some numerical analysis to back it up, but mindless "pure hype" seems a less compelling explanation for the valuation we see than financial/securities shenanigans, especially after what happened with Gamestop.
No, they're quasi-legal positions, often between private parties and undisclosed to the public, whose stipulations require further positioning that can move markets in unexpected and unexplainable ways. Hype is emotional, this is reason, albeit flawed because of incomplete information. Tesla shorts reasoned that an electric car company, a sector segment that has never been successful, was doomed; they short-sold the stock expecting never to have to close their positions, as bankruptcy would result in cancellation of Tesla's shares. That didn't happen; they didn't understand that there was a demand for the kind of vehicle Tesla sold, how much money Musk was willing to pour into the company to keep it afloat, etc. So the price rise would be a result of reconciling their bad bet with the market.
Which only further enhances the overall point, there is no reasonable auto marketplace data (actual or even projected) to support the current valuation.
The "Magnificent 7" should really only be 6 with Tesla being the odd one out.
Some of the reports on it from stock market "analysts" are almost comical and often rely on an appeal to tradition --- it's always been this way. Exactly the sort of nonsense cold hard "analysis" is supposed to cut through.
It's as if there is some significant pressure to emotionally support the big investors that are heavily bought in.
If TSLA were priced like a car maker it would be $10. Direct sales and the charging network, could, generously, make it $30. Which would ignore the existential threat of Cybertruck. If the Rivian R2 had been Cybertruck, we'd be posting about the liquidation auction.
Frankly speaking, I read about Musk going bankrupt every month since Tesla's were introduced, than SpaceX was supposed to sank Musk (until it turned out that it and Virgin "disrupted" space industry), than Twitter purchase, now we have Cybertruck.
Not being a fun of Musk as a person (as I am not fun of B. Gates or S. Jobs) I do appreciate that he delivered a breakthrough in at least two industries that were considered staled, unapproachable and closed to existing players (space and automoto). So I will give that Cybertruck a benefit of doubt.
The fundamentals have changed. Sales are tanking. I’m guessing the share price is being propped up by some financial shenanigans and retail investors.
FWIW I was an early investor in TSLA, back in 2012. I made 30x my initial investment. I lived the company and was a big fan of Elon until something happened to his brain.
I have observed this company for a long, long time.
Same as you, I think. Invested in 2013… I have sold more and more shares as the market cap reached ridiculous levels compared to other car companies, and as I felt Musk was over promising and under delivering more and more.
He has mislead both investors and customers for years, but his recent behavior and statements have been, at the very least, odd. Even disregarding politics, I don’t believe that he is steering Tesla in the right direction, and he is not behaving as a responsible or serious CEO with a clear meaningful vision for the company, or as someone who even cares about it.
Not sure if something happened to his brain, but it doesn’t feel normal, calm or rational.
Perhaps Musk sees Tesla’s primary (only?) competitive advantage as essentially being the Gazprom of cars and/or electric energy in the MAGA USA. The president of the country already did a Tesla ad read on the White House lawn a few days ago.
> I think that Cybertrucks could be the nail in the coffin for even the most MAGA brainwashed Elon fan, once they drive it
I have a friend who owns a Cybertruck, and he let me give it a try. There are many, many, many legitimate and damning criticisms of Cybertruck, Tesla, and Musk, but the Cybertruck driving experience (on pavement) is not one of them. It is crazy fast, and surprisingly nimble with its 4-wheel drive-by-wire steering. It is dangerous and stupid, but it isn't boring.
Speaking as a lifelong driving enthusiast, I would never buy one, but I'm glad I got to try one.
No need for brain programming. Some of them will have seen Cody Detwiler WhistlinDiesel test the CT. [1][2] He's of course overly dramatic and meant to be entertainment but I personally wish he would test every vehicle and should be the standard for durability testing. There are plenty of other Youtubers running into problems with the Cyber..... falling apart when doing things I did with my 80's Chevy without issue.
I enjoy his channel. He talks in one of his videos about the regret of getting a Cybertruck and putting his company logo on it now that it's so political. I assume others are probably having similar regrets.
In reference to the frame I can not even imagine breaking a frame. All my offroad and utility vehicles have had a steel frames that at worst might bend if I go all whistlindiesel on it. A big enough pothole can put a lot of stress on a frame. To me personally it feels like there is some similarity between the Tesla design philosophies and the OceanGate Titan submersible both of which needed significantly more stress testing.
whistlindiesel is one of the most annoying car-centered youtube creators. Dude constantly baits people into saying stuff and then he claims to be a victim to drum up support from his conservative followers. His script is so tired and predictable at this point.
i'm not saying dont post his links or anything, just giving some perspective for HN folks who might not be familiar with his shtick.
Absolutely. He trolled the general aviation crowd pretty hard. He also does some good once in a while like getting the cops to leave a high-school kid alone. [1] People may not like his style but I would like to see him troll more communities. Too many people take themselves way too serious in my opinion.
I agree in spirit. I just don't know how else to quickly make a group expose itself for how uptight and stodgy it may be. When I was young I was a member of an amazing group that was down to earth, intelligent, well spoken, rational, well connected and they ruined me.
Now I find most groups to be fake on the outside and once one joins the true faces start to show. So I guess I like to see those groups exposed for who they are to prevent people from mistakenly joining them unless of course that is their thing.
eh, he's a pretty garbage person with a long list of sidekicks who have done crappy things. Sticking up for some kids for likes on youtube doesn't negate his long list of crappy actions.
True and I would not be surprised if some day one of his crew members gets hurt from all the dumb stunts they pull. Stunt people get hurt and these are not even seasoned stunt people, just random friends and orbiters. All that said I still want to see everything tested by him.
I own a cybertruck and completely love it. It’s wacky and fun and it gives me all the tech I wanted, plus I can use it like a truck when needed. I actually think it’s opposite, once people drive it they realize it’s really compelling. It does have some minor build issues that are fixed for free under warranty. Then again so does my gmc.
Same with Cybertruck, Font size is wrong, tpms light doesn't stay on if you power cycle the truck, a mirror camera opens slowly all minor software fixes, which leaves "used the wrong glue" twice, inverter problem, and windscreen motor overheating.
Point is ever car has loads of recalls, some don't get clicks so aren't reported much
Also while I’m getting down voted by a bunch of folks that have never driven one… Supervised FSD is getting very very good. I use it most days to drive and very rarely have to disengage. It is significantly better than the other driver assistance systems that I’ve driven. It’s come a long way
I have seen this. A cybertuck was pulling a small trailer for a landscaping company. It wasn't that interesting because it was a trailer that could have been pulled by most passenger cars, but I saw it.
I will acknowledge this, thought its not exactly what I had in mind.
If Cybertruck marketing claims it to be a truck - I’d like to see it perform in said capacity like a truck would. My F250 tows 8,000 lbs travel trailer as an example. I am yet to see one towed by Cybertruck.
I think two things are true, the government needs to cut expenses drastically and also that Elon should spend way more time at Tesla and spacex.
I didn’t buy my truck because of Elon, I bought it because I needed a truck and all the other truck manufacturers are completely brain dead when it comes to software.
I definitely wish Elon would shut up often, but he’s clearly not a nazi. That’s all nonsense.
His work at doge has been underwhelming so far, I had higher hopes. But it seems like most would rather have the status quo of major deficit spending and debt. Overall I would prefer drastic reduction in spending and waste with an actual plan and less chaos.
None of what Elon does makes me regret my car purchase. Why in the world would I make a personal decision like a car based on some billionaire I’ll never meet? I didn’t buy the truck as any kind of virtue signal. I bought it because I like it despite how dumb and crazy it looks.
Musk: homeless are "violent drug zombies with eyes devoid of life"[2]
Musk: people making use of federal programs are part of "parasite class"[3]
Musk: testifying against the president is "treason" and the witness should be executed[4]
Musk: the AfD is great, Hitler was a communist[5], and public sector employees caused the Holocaust[6]
Musk: racist staffers are more than welcome in DOGE[7]
Musk: George Floyd's killer ought to be pardoned[8]
Musk: empathy is causing the destruction of Western civilization[9]
Musk: doxxing for me[10], but not for thee[11]
Musk: war veteran who visited Ukraine is a "traitor"[12]
I mean, if this was just some idiot schlub ranting on social media, perhaps I'd consider buying their products if it was a life or death situation. But this guy sits next to the president of the United States and evidently has the power to enact his fucked up policies. Personally, I see any action that gives him an iota of additional power as deeply unethical.
Tesla was the only EV that was somewhat affordable and the supercharger network was really good.
In 2025 in my own country the Netherlands several Chinese companies have entered the market and there are non Tesla supercharger stations.
We are now in the "tough competition" stage.
"Tesla was the only EV that was somewhat affordable"
I don't think this is true. For example the Nissan Leaf has always been more affordable. But the range of the first Leaf models was very low. Tesla was the first EV company that offered a range comparible to ICE cars.
> Tesla is done in Europe for political/cultural reasons
I don’t know anything about Tesla or EVs or Europe. But is there a precedence to this? That a good product went extinct because of political/cultural reasons?
Not quite the same, but in the UK there was a chain of high street jewellers called Ratners. In the early ‘90s Gerald Ratner, the founder, made some jokes about the low quality of the products at a talk for the Institute of Directors, including famously comparing them negatively to a prawn sandwich from Marks and Spencer. Unfortunately the talk was videotaped, and was all over the news shortly after. It killed the brand, and lost Ratner his job, although it didn’t kill the company as they owned other brands like H Samuel that they pivoted to.
Tesla car’s don’t have a great reputation for quality or service.
They were among the first and the cars were good enough to persuade people, but there are many alternatives now. People are less likely to pay a premium for Tesla.
And the brand is irremediably damaged by Elon’s polarising politics.
Being off-putting to a large part of your market is bound to have negative effects on your sales.
Tesla is in a very peculiar position as an automaker, P/E ratio (price of the stock compared to earnings) is extremely optimist regarding the potential, with self-driving, robots and overall market dominance.
But all of that is not real, it is, at best speculative, and the cars themselves are not great, especially when compared to other EVs.
The huge valuation of Tesla will crumble dramatically as soon as investors stop believing the promises. And having poor/declining or even stagnating sales is very likely to trigger some close scrutiny and doubts.
No, and saying that makes me think you never tried. Its a fun rocketship. External size, being shaped specifically to kill pedestrians, cracking plastic fantastic components, weight related accelerated wear, falling off panels and finally nazi association are its main problems.
Let’s not forget that Europe has its own populist far right movements coming into power: Reform UK, National Rally, AfD, etc. etc. etc. If the equivalent of MAGA takes over the EU, would owning a Tesla become a virtue signal for the ~30% of people that support these politics?
I'd want reports from randomly sampled Cybertruck users before agreeing to that last clause...
Reports of Tesla cars being awful and full of problems have been around for a decade, but the people I've directly spoken to like their Teslas, though none own a Cybertruck.
I must have talked to 20+ Model Y owners by now, and no one has regretted it. So much so that I gave up my CarPlay requirement and bought a Model Y because the price and reputation (within my circles) was so good.
And 6 months in, I cannot complain. I would have spent $15k+ more on a Highlander or RX and I don't think I would have gotten any extra utility (other than CarPlay), and I would have gotten much worse torque. And I would have had to wait on a list for when Toyota randomly sent the color and model we wanted, and we would have had to bat down attempts by the dealer to charge more, and spend 3+ hours at the dealership.
Not really, share price is just stabilising back to November levels pre-election. The trucks were never their staple income, and there is a new Juniper model coming out which has dropped their prices plus competition from chinese brands. If you look at overall global sales, they slowed in 2024 too.
Just pointing out the idiocy of the current situation. VW was actually founded by the Nazis and even the name is not neutral, so if "activists" want to use the label "Nazi car" then surely that is as close as it gets...
VW is a public company, and everyone who was involved with that is dead. The name is different, the ownership is different, the principals are different - its ties to its Nazi past are beyond tenuous. Meanwhile the _current CEO_ of Tesla is flouncing around doing Nazi salutes. Like, if you can't see the difference, then I dunno what to tell you.
Ford might be a better example, as there's been some continuity of ownership/control there, but, well, Henry Ford is, thankfully, extremely dead. Again, that does make a difference.
It will be a comparable situation once antifascists liberate the USA, political and capital reconstruction with strong de-neonazification removes the ideology from influence and power, and after a couple generations of global veterans and victims spitting at the name, pop culture jokes and ad-fueled media rehabilitation.
Until then, I don't think it's fair to whitewash the Tesla brand with the brush that allowed the successful rehabilitation of German and Japanese industry. Elon Musk is already the eugenicist face of the destruction of USAID (>1M deaths/ year) and positioned to deploy an orbital constellation of weaponized satellites with offensive capabilities (Golden Dome). Do we really need to play this one out? It ends with tens or hundreds of millions dead, has the pursuit of money blinded so many of us to our shared humanity?
> Just pointing out the idiocy of the current situation. VW was actually founded by the Nazis
I don’t really get this.
So if we continue with this, logically Germany (and even Britain due to other reasons) should dissolve itself because it is permanently tainted as a country?
One of the reasons US seceded from Britain is because they wanted to steal more land from the natives and weren’t allowed to. It’s a country that’s basically founded on genocide (and not much better than VW)
I went to Santana Row in the Bay Area and the Tesla store was very popular. Most regular people aren't terminally online and constantly worried about politics.
While being terminally online might reduce your capacity to understand the thoughts and actions of the everyman, I'm not certain that the Tesla store at Santana Row is a great alternative to get a read on "most regular people".
You don't have to be terminally online to see nazi salutes at national political conventions or people protesting and pelting cars & stores nationwide.
I knew Rivian did, but I don't consider them since the cars are more than double the cost of Model 3 and Model Y, plus who knows how long that business exists since it still doesn't earn money. Same with Polestar, they are gambles that rich people can afford to make.
I didn't know Hyundai sold online, but that's good news. If only their prices were $20k lower. There is no way I am paying $55k+ for a Hyundai, especially without a $7,500 tax credit compared to a Tesla.
I just checked Tesla inventory, and they have 3 row (5 adults + 2 kids) 2024 Model Y AWD Long Ranges for $39k to $41k (with tax credit) on their website right now.
Honestly in terms of value, efficiency, safety, practicality, etc it is hard to beat the Model Y. The refresh is even better, a huge step up in comfort, and imho quieter and smoother than a Lucid or Mercedes-Benz EQS. I guess some sacrifices must be made if you really care about not supporting a "nazi".
Model 3/y are still the best priced electrical vehicles on the market. There are enough poor people that can’t afford the new Mercedes CLA and must drive model 3 instead. I wouldn’t invite Elon for lunch, but I wouldn’t invite German brand managers either.
As an apparently “poor person” owner of model 3 bought used, who it seems “must drive” it - I dislike the whiff of elitism in your post.
What must your world look like that you consider a 30K off-lease car a poor person’s last resort vehicle….
It might surprise you - as having never owned an EV before - I turned to Tesla because I thought of it as buying a trend-setting vehicle from a pioneering car maker that envisioned what next generation transportation might be unanchored to tradition - rather than risking buying a half-baked me-too attempt at a market-share catchup from a legacy brand.
Whether I was ultimately correct in these expectations is a different conversation, but I think one might see how I may have thought that knowing little about EV?
I am driving model y as a poor person. Can’t afford Skoda Enyaq or ID.4 or ID.7 or the nice BMW iX. There are no cheaper cars than Tesla that can be used as a first and the last car in a household.
It was clear to me since the incident with the English diver in 2018 which direction Elon took. I was observing him very carefully as a techno messiah before, very interesting personality and his companies. I wasn’t fan, it was just something new and never seen before.
And I had a moral dilemma back then. Support Elon buying Tesla or pay 15000€ more for Skoda… I just went with Elon. And now I am cool with that. Remember dieselgate? VW managers paid a company to gas apes with diesel fumes in US (because such tests are illegal in EU). God knows what did elsewhere. VW isn’t better by any means, just less press coverage.
The point is still kind of valid, it is a decently affordable EV compared to many other ”luxury” EVs. They also had (have?) very cheap payment options available. I’d suspect the expenses are a big factor in the purchasing decision.
edit: obviously it’s not a car for poor people as it is still very expensive. I understand your point too.
Maybe it’s humor, or maybe when after one comes of as a jackass with a freudian sentence - a pitiful attempt to brush it off with “haha, it’s a joke”. The line is thin.
Whenever I see a Cybertruck, I think it must have been a kid who was born too late to buy a DeLorean, he grew up and saw another stainless steel vehicle and said, “I’m in!”
Why not just buy a DeLorean?
A Cybertruck is a like a sketch of a DeLorean made in 3.5 seconds by someone in a hurry to leave the bar.
DeLoreans look fantastic, but drive terribly and are a nightmare to be inside or own.
Cybertrucks might fall apart from the outside and nazi association making it a nightmare to own, but they drive fantastic. Think spaceship tank with instant acceleration, a 11 second quarter mile brick https://www.motortrend.com/features/quickest-fastest-pickup-...
There's a video embedded in the article which points out the problems. But there's also a recent follow-up video where he tells what Tesla had to fix, and it's pretty concerning. It was more than just those panels.
I appreciate that the kid in the video has a personalized license plate that says "NO TAX", because I am sure, if he gets his wish, that he will make a video quietly complaining about how the privately owned roads he drives on are disintegrating during cold weather and make bank on youtube ad money.
As I noted earlier, this might be more than the glue, but that they did not take into account that the bonding substrates have different coefficients of thermal expansion. So next spring, during these wild temperature variation, they will start popping off again. The trucks, being released in November 2023, have only experienced maybe one spring season in the northern latitudes. Most initial sales were in 2Q of 2024 so they did not see a real temperature flux.
I'm not a car guy, based on the article the trims are glued. My question, is gluing stuffs normal to other car manufacturers for materials like the cantrail trim?
I will bet that that did not take into account that the bonding substrates have different coefficients of thermal expansion. Bad engineers only look at the glue, and not what the glue is holding together.
But wow, why do people like the following put up with such bad design and engineering and still praise the company?
God, yes. Every time I see a Cybertruck in NC they all look, well, just dirty. And not like a normal dirty. It is hard to explain, but the aesthetics just do not sit right in my artists eye.
I finally figured it out the other day: The Tesla cyber truck is pointing backwards !that is why it looks so odd.
In most vehicles the long sloping part is the windshield in front and the steep slope is the rear window. But the Tesla cyber truck turns that around and thus it appears to be driving backwards everywhere.
Adding to the backwards illusion is the rounded mid-level panel where the grill on a normal car would be and the headlights are: On most vehicles that headlights section on the front is angular and the also have a rounded section on the back of the at that level.
Is there are many more quote Unquote Interesting features. For example on most vehicles the roof is flat and that gives an indication of how much headspace is in the vehicle. But the cybertruck inverts this with a peaked roof that suggests it has very little headspace. That combined with the backwards ness mentioned above Transmits a message to an observer of great discomfort when sitting inside the vehicle.
Now that may be unfair and it may be quite comfortable inside the vehicle but the outward facing shape suggests the opposite. It makes it feel very constrange and uncomfortable to look at and I suspect this is a major factor in people's dislike for the vehicle's appearance. As soon as they see it their mind responds to the shape and imagines what it is like to be inside it. That shape makes them feel uncomfortable.
Tesla post 2020 is an interesting experiment in automaking.
I'm fairly convinced that if the US wouldn't protect it's internal markets so much, both Apple and Tesla would probably be gone in maximum 10 years. Maybe not gone as much as greatly diminished.
Tesla is on paper 20x overvalued even against other American car manufacturers like Ford (Tesla P/E ~120, Ford ~6), and I don't see many American cars being highly competitive against Chinese brands whose premium range starts around where American brands put their budget range.
Apple, not so clear. Always expensive, but in the sense of only having a premium range and not catering to budget markets, they're priced like premium Android phones. While I see legal and political risks to Apple, I don't see market risks.
I think they have some interesting innovation, like the gigapress, which greatly reduces complexity of the manufacturing system and the time of a car through the assembly line. Which reduces cost drastically. But Cybertruck is just a brainfart.
Interesting innovation, yes. But not more so than anyone else.
Given many Chinese car brands are wildly cheaper (in China) than Tesla models, I don't even buy that gigapress is even all that interesting for cost reduction.
Whenever I talked about this with Tesla fans they kept parroting this line about Tesla being "a battery company that also makes cars" or similar. I can understand that this (having some non-car products and a charging network) grants them an advantage of sorts, but they're by far and away the most valuable company by market cap, while having a fraction of the sales of companies like Toyota, GM, Honda etc. It's like the market is expecting Tesla to explode in sales in the coming years and I can't see it, not just because people are turning on Elon Musk but because I don't know if they can even build enough cars to meet that expected valuation if that demand was actually there.
Moving to a new country with a different national language has given me a direct personal appreciation for what Dunning Kruger feels like from the inside.
Some may parrot for tribal reasons, but there's a huge number who have a superficial knowledge and it simply doesn't occur to them how deep their ignorance is — tribalism is one way critics are equal to fans in Musk's case (and not just that Musk's fans are parroting his shallow criticisms of everyone else), but the DK part applies to all of us. Even me pointing at P/E ratios here is merely one step up the ladder from looking at the share price, it's not a deep analysis, just a santiy check.
Having owned a ton of Tesla stock since 2018. I can tell you that your P/E analysis is very shallow. Anyone looking to determine the value of the company should at the very least read and understand the Tesla Master Plan 3 document. Their execution vs that plan is an actual metric you can use to project the future value of the company.
LOL. That's a generic description of the energy transition.
It's not like the rest of the world is blind. Chinese companies are the champions of battery and solar panel manufacturing. Every major economy has major electric car manufacturers, China is ahead of everyone. Tesla's batteries are made in collaboration with LG Chem and someone else, I forgot who exactly.
Your point is that you're expecting Tesla to monopolize the global energy storage and usage markets? It ain't working, if that's the plan.
If reason returns, Tesla should probably be valued at less than Kia or Hyundai.
It's a description of Tesla's future business direction and a metric against which you can value the company.
That's how you make meaningful models and value a business. P/E is meaningful only in context. Buying stocks based on PE is a very good way to lose money.
It's worse than that. It turns out making electric cars is complicated but a lot of companies are transitioning already. Tesla fanboys were expecting Apple and Samsung to emerge out of the many phone manufacturers but it turns out... It's not the case.
Mercedes has competent EVs, as do BMW, VW, Stellantis, Kia, Hyundai, etc and of course, all the Chinese brands.
Also we've hit a temporary plateau in the EV transition as except for Chinese brands, everyone else is mostly making expensive models plus the infra isn't always there, so it looks like we need to wait for 2027-2028 to actually start seeing those 18-20-25k cars a lot of the world is waiting (that's when EVs actually start massively outselling combustion cars).
More than that... Tesla is making all those batteries in partnership with battery companies. They're not some secret sauce.
That exists, but Samsung, Google, etc. still compete in the market. The Huawei block also is less about the mobile device, but network infrastructure where Erisson, Nokia etc. are active
Beats me but Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, etc, etc are very popular worldwide, and they don't sell in the US. The EU is very stringent in technical requirements so that's not the key factor.
Similar story with Chinese EVs.
I don't know which exact protectionist measure is used, but it's there all right.
If out in the open sea there are 100 sharks and none of them ever enter a 100x100 square, I don't really need to see the barrier to know something <<is>> keeping them out.
Thanks for your opinion. Oh forgot, lol. Markets are efficient and if the Europeans and rest of the world are not married to a US company(Apple) that doesn't mean the other product is inferior, the Samsung phone for example.
It might be more popular in those countries but backing these claims using random maps that are clearly incorrect doesn’t really do much to strengthen your argument.
Apple, I think, would lose market share but would live. It would probably make them better since it would be a nice boot in the ass. But their products are at least good, if a bit overpriced and with more rough spots than some will admit.
Tesla would be dead the instant BYD hit the US shore. Total death. Like chapter 11 and fire sale.
Even the most fanatic Tesla fanbois, have given up on trying to justify anymore the absurd valuation as a car company....
They are always watching forwards.... :-) Now it's all about the value of the non existing...but coming soon robotics...And coming soon... but non existing, self-driving taxis.
Allegedly, the Cybertruck is the first car Musk was involved in designing. All the previous Tesla models were variants of the designs produced before Musk bought the company.
Later than it was supposed to be. More expensive than it was supposed to be. Not as much range as it was supposed to have. Not the exoskeleton design it was said to be. Not bulletproof like it was claimed to be.
The whole thing is a pile of engineering WTF. The enormous wiper that leaves a huge amount of the windshield untouched, when it manages to work at all. The wheel support structures from other Tesla models being reused in a much heavier vehicle, leading to all those photos we've seen of Cybertrucks with snapped off wheels. The headlight "shelf" that collects snow and blocks the headlights. The air suspension system that takes forever to adjust when it's not failing altogether. The glue, oh the glue, so much glue.
The "headlights shelf" is because the protruding bumper is designed to be lower, to make the vehicle compatible with other cars during a crash, in order to protect the safety of other cars.
Anyway, the Cybertruck is a uniquely fun to drive and nimble truck thanks to its four wheel steering and steer by wire. The F-150 Lightning feels like a clumsy relic in comparison. It's just an innovative vehicle with a bunch of early teething problems. The amount of hate it's getting is way overblown.
>>The "headlights shelf" is because the protruding bumper is designed to be lower, to make the vehicle compatible with other cars during a crash, in order to protect the safety of other cars.
Okay but this is still a poorly considered design element, especially when a company is willing to sacrifice so much else to its peculiar aesthetics. I had no idea what the headlights looked like before this comment, but now I can't unsee them and I'm thankful my truck doesn't share those design "features".
I think it's probably more appropriate to look at it this way:
The "headlights shelf" is the result of realizing that putting the headlights where the light bar happens to be would be ridiculously high and absolutely terrible for everyone else on the road. But the light bar couldn't move, there were too many concept drawings and renders that showcased the light bar. There was just too much "it has to look this way" pressure. So the headlights were crammed in a narrow space just above the bumper, meaning even a little snow buildup is enough to start blocking the headlights.
It's not enough to simply say "well the headlights are where they are and the bumper is where it is, so yeah there's a shelf but so what?" You should ask why these things are arranged as they are.
Look at the concept drawings and renders. The headlights are not there. The light bar was supposed to be the headlights. The location of the headlights is an "oh shit, what can we do about it?" reaction to a design that was fundamentally bad.
Wrong. The first Tesla, the Roadster, was an existing design by Lotus [1]. All Tesla designs since, including the Cybertruck, have been led by Franz von Holzhausen.
Musk didn't "buy" Tesla, he was its first investor, at a time when the company had only 3 employees, and he was chairman of the board since then (and he's its biggest shareholder to this day). Anyway, he was always involved in the design decisions (IIRC Model X falcon doors were his idea).
Musk and Tesla could have dominated the US EV market for years to come had he stuck with the core clean energy message and not surrounded himself with sycophants and publicly acted like a racist jerk. It’s like a modern retelling of The Emperor’s New Clothes.
Not the US but most EV markets, apart from maybe eventually asian markets. Tesla and Musk had a crazy amount of goodwill and pretty much everyone I know was ”oh look, it’s a Tesla!” early on. Now every is more like ”oh look, it’s a Tesla..”
By all accounts this vehicle is a failure. I suspect it wasn't actually intended to be the core to Tesla's future though, just an "epic" little novelty treat for Elon and some hardcore fanbois.
But I am curious what their future is supposed to look like - were they expecting to grow based on sales of the existing (four?) models or do they have a new model in the pipeline?
In my opinion, this is the primary problem with Tesla (no new models?) and future directions.
Tesla has promised a new Tesla Roadster for 5+ years now. There is no sign of it. Cybertruck also took ~5 years from reveal to release. Not sure where the Tesla semi is.
There has been some mention of a low cost EV, but I don't think we've seen sign of that yet. Last I heard was that it was cancelled.
So, given that Tesla usually uses around 3-5 years from reveal to actual production and release of a new vehicle, they are probably not going to sell any new models the next 3-5 years. Maybe updated versions of the existing line-up (like the new model Y).
Obviously, last year Musk revealed the "Robovan" (a somewhat odd self-driving minibus) and the "Robotaxi" (a two-seater self-driving taxi without a driving wheel). Both of these depend on FSD living up to its name first, and neither seem to be intended for "normal" people.
During the last Quarterly Earnings call Musk heavily pushed the idea that Optimus (Tesla's still in development biped robot) would increase the company's market cap by 10x. So it seems Musk thinks the future for Tesla is in the field of biped robots rather than vehicles.
Musk also claimed that a Tesla would start FSD taxi-service in Texas this summer -- I find that timeline doubtful, given that it takes time to set up the infrastructure for a "taxi" company. In any case, self-driving taxis is another possibly future direction for Tesla.
> Tesla has promised a new Tesla Roadster for 5+ years now
It’s actually been 7+ years. And it didn’t stop Tesla from taking $50k deposits on it and holding that money the entire time. Nothing like vaporware covering up an interest free loan.
Musk likely wants to inflate the Tesla share price. He sells "visions of the future". This was always his way; FSD, low-cost trips to Mars, solar roofs, self-driving taxis and semis, tunnels everywhere to solve traffic, NeuraLink, hyperloop (sigh!)... and it appears robots is now his next tool to get publicity and increase TSLA.
FSD is getting better each year. SpaceX has the lowest cost rockets and working on even lower cost rockets. They have the most efficient Semi and are building a factory to mass produce them. Neuralink has multiple successful human trials. And they've built robots and have the AI training for them to navigate the world
> There has been some mention of a low cost EV, but I don't think we've seen sign of that yet. Last I heard was that it was cancelled.
From that same earnings call "We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and will continue to expand our lineup from there."
We haven't seen any renders or heard any details yet, so I think first half of 2025 is either unrealistic or this will simply be a variant of an existing model. They also had to retool factories for the updated Model Y, and I assume they would have to do something similar for this vehicle.
There is (rumor) article from today here where they claim the low cost (affordable) vehicle is a "stripped down" model Y (at 20% price reduction):
I'm not sure the 20% cost reduction is for a new thing, as they were talking about the difficulty of making a 20% cost reduction to all their cars just as standard practice recently
I followed Tesla and Musk pretty closely for a long time. It really seems like everything about Cybertruck was the Falcon Wing doors lesson all over again, which Musk claimed to have learned. Apparently not.
Also curious what is their long-term future as collectibles. This vehicle is emblematic of the question. With cars and especially EVs being proprietary software on wheels, how collectible are they? In another era, the cyber truck would definitely be collectible.
There's no concept of "sick days" here in Germany like there is back in the US. You're either sick or you're not. If you're sick you don't go to work. If you're sick more than 3 days, you get a doctor's note. If you're stick more than a month or something (I forget the exact amount of time) then insurance takes over to help pay your wage so your employer isn't completely hosed.
Ultimately, you're not penalized for being sick. But your employer can still check that you're actually sick, just to be sure. I'm sure many people are taking time off of Tesla work due to stress, which is a valid reason to get a doctor's note here.
> But your employer can still check that you're actually sick.
Within limits, yes. Tesla in Germany went way beyond that though. Private detectives and managers showing up at employees houses to check they're actually sick.
They're also holding back the salaries of sick employees and are pressuring sick employees to give up their medical privilege and share personal health information with them.
Highly unethical and very likely illegal in some instances.
Every low or high-paying job I've had in the US is the same. I can just call in sick for a few days. Eventually they would want a doctor's note just to be sure.
>If you're stick more than a month or something (I forget the exact amount of time) then insurance takes over to help pay your wage so your employer isn't completely hosed
Doesn't employers being forced to paying wages to sick employees for 6 weeks take a toll on small businesses with little cashflow?
>There's no concept of "sick days" here in Germany like there is back in the US.
No, but sick days are still not working days. You still have to report "Krankenstand" to your employer. It's not like whether you work or not because you're sick it's the same thing to your employer and to the law. Sick days are a thing, just not like in the US, but they're still sick days, and not working days.
>I'm sure many people are taking time off of Tesla work due to stress, which is a valid reason to get a doctor's note here.
I'm always curious about this. How often can you get day off for stress? How do employers or health insurers differentiate between stress as a health condition and being lazy and not wanting to work?
Because I remember one time, our offshore team in Germany seemed to all be always mysteriously "getting sick" right before we had a SW release scheduled, leaving us holding the bags. Huh, what a weird coincidence. /s
If you look at recent statistics, German workers are at the top of sick days used, twice as much sick days than the EU average, which is an insane difference. So what's going on? Is there a health crisis in Germany causing Germans to be twice as sick as their neighbors? Or are they twice as likely to cheat the system? Or a bit of both?
> Doesn't employers being forced to paying wages to sick employees for 6 weeks take a toll on small businesses with little cashflow?
Insurance kicks in and pays after 6 weeks (not a month, another comment corrected me). It's also part of the expectation when you hire. It's a problem sometimes, yes, but everyone - even employers - benefits from it.
> Sick days are a thing, just not like in the US, but they're still sick days, and not working days.
There is no federal law in the U.S. that mandates paid sick leave for employees; however, the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) allows eligible employees to take up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave for certain medical situations. Federal employees are entitled to 13 paid sick days per year.
> Is there a health crisis in Germany causing Germans to be twice as sick as their neighbors?
No. People get sick. There's an obesity and mental crisis in the US, too, whether it's comfortable or not for someone to acknowledge.
Why are you brining in the US when I was asking about Germany? I don't care about the US since I don't live there.
>No. People get sick.
But why a lot more than the rest of Europe? That's what you didn't answer. If you'd get sick twice as much than average your doctor would probably do some extra test on you.
Of course, but what doctors can and can't do is restricted by the regulations of the national health insurance/organization.
For example in Austria a doctor can't easily write you sick for stress over and over without getting in hot water with the national health insurance board.
After too many sick days, you get summoned for "an audit" to the national insurance doctor for an examination to check why are you sick so often, and unless you show some test results that can prove that you can't work, then that doctor will declare you fit for work and then you are forced to return to work.
There was a case in the news where one worker had to sue the national health insource to be classified as permanently unfit for work(disability) due to long covid since the national insure was not accepting/recognizing her long covid and calling her fit for work.
It's pretty brutal sometimes, the system has grifters on both sides leading to misery.
> If you look at recent statistics, German workers are at the top of sick days used, twice as much sick days than the EU average, which is an insane difference. So what's going on? Is there a health crisis in Germany causing Germans to be twice as sick as their neighbors? Or are they twice as likely to cheat the system? Or a bit of both?
Both are obviously factors, but there is also another category, people who are legitimately stressed to a degree that affects their health but who are forced to continue working in other jurisdictions due to the lack of employee protections.
All labour is exploited - the degree to which it is is limited by law in each country. Germany just allows less severe exploitation than Ireland or Austria or - obviously - the United States.
>All labour is exploited - the degree to which it is is limited by law in each country.
That's very reductionist to say that ALL labor is exploited, least of all privileged well paid white collar jobs in rich western countries, and undermines the actual labor exploitation going on out there.
Sure, you might consider yourself exploited with a measly 100k+/year wage because your CEO makes over 200x that, but the majority of the population will disagree and have no sympathy on that being remotely resembling exploitation.
> That's very reductionist to say that ALL labor is exploited, least of all privileged well paid white collar jobs in rich western countries, and undermines the actual labor exploitation going on out there.
All labour is exploited, even the most pampered employees. That's why it's important that even those most well-paid and well-treated employees lend their support to others through supporting unions and the global labour movement.
> Sure, you might consider yourself exploited with a measly 100k+/year wage because your CEO makes over 200x that, but the majority of the population will disagree and have no sympathy on that being remotely resembling exploitation.
Divide and conquer has been the oppressors' tactic of choice for millennia. The tried-and-tested counter is class solidarity. Don't fool yourself into thinking you aren't working class just because your wages are higher than others.
>All labour is exploited, even the most pampered employees
Look up what exploitation is.
>That's why it's important that even those most well-paid and well-treated employees lend their support to others through supporting unions and the global labour movement.
Bit of both, I think. German winters are nasty, cold, and damp, it has the third-highest median age behind Japan and Italy, kids universally go to kindergarten to bring germs home, and it has a culture where you don't show up if actually ill - it's worth noting that a non-sick day does not mean a productive day, especially if your colleagues catch your illness.
But also, Germans are pretty intense, despite their image of relaxed, easy-going people*. In my experience, they're very dedicated, but also take no shit. I can well see that if they think the work balance is not right, or they're not treated like human beings or getting a fair deal in some manner, they'll take it upon themselves to make it fair. If your company acts like a typical American one, I can well see a culture clash. Anecdotal, of course.
Worse than Nordics/Scandinavia or neighboring Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Poland? They don't have winter clothing in Germany?
> If your company acts like a typical American one, I can well see a culture clash.
Most of German workers work for German companies following German laws and German culture, not American companies. So why twice the sick days versus EU neighbours?
>Most of German workers work for German companies following German laws and German culture, not American companies. So why twice the sick days versus EU neighbours?
Which EU neighbours are we talking about? A cursory check shows them to be up by like 20ish% compared to czechia and poland, (which have decent sick pay) but up immensely compared to France and the UK (which do not). If #of sick days scales with % of sick pay it would make perfect sense for germany to be on top, do you have a decent dataset on #sick days by any chance? I was unable to find consistent data on this.
>but up immensely compared to France and the UK (which do not)
Have decent sick pay, france seems to pay 20%, UK like 10ish%, makes complete sense that such countries would have less sick days.
>I mean just google. For example:
This is the kind of mediocre dataset I dislike, going to their datasource ( https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_411-2700-abse... ) half of germanys neighbours have not reported data for 2022, the graph they use for "EU" seems to just use the data from 2020 and stretch it over to 2022 because thats where the WHO dataset ends.
For example if you check out slovenia in the dataset they have a huge spike in 2022 (similar to germany) but went down a lot in 2023, Germany has no 2023 data so we can't say whether germany went down based on the WHO dataset.
Two papers linked in the article show germany going down to at least 2021 levels in 2023, yet this does not seem represented in the graph.
It's legally 50% for the first 6 months - but French work benefits are very largely defined by collective conventions agreed between unions and industry, which grant rights to employees above legal ones across entire sectors. Most employees will have a higher sick pay, but I can't find statistics about it.
*at least 33% of the region. there is no point in sugar-coating this. if you live there and feel misrepresented, then its up to you to stand up and speak up and try to turn the tide
To preempt Tesla stans: surely this can be fixed with an OTA update, which makes it totally not serious. Tesla-haters again making a mountain out of a molehill.
He will take us away, on a spaceship, to a shining city on a hill - on another planet. Humanity shall reach escape velocity from its problems, we will have StarTreks, we will go on a adventure! You goto believe, that the future will be bright, if you do not believe in that.. then it all comes apart at the seems.
Besides Tesla's being the best EV's at their price point based on every real-life conversation with Tesla owners, at least they pause deliveries and address issues, unlike many other car manufacturers.
Tell me of any other EV truck with anywhere near the same real-life mileage and features, and look at all the EV trucks that are actual failures, like the electric F-150.
