This is an interesting hypothetical, and I hope people with better understanding of statistics would weigh in.
But lets change the example a bit:
- There's a 10% chance of getting shot on any day you leave the house
- You are able to get 5 days of food any time you leave the house
- There's a 100% chance of starving if you go 8 days without leaving your house
How long can you avoid getting shot or starving?
Presumably if you don't want to go hungry at all, you have to leave the house every 5 days to get more food. After 50 days, the odds of you having been shot are pretty darn high.
I guess I was trying to get the parent comment to reconsider their position on 50/50 being useful because they would never leave the house. But I guess it's still "more" useful than 90/10 even, in their example, the chance during one day isn't reflective of long term odds.
But an election (particularly presidential) is only once every 4 years. And it's not "50/50" or "90/10" every election - it's typically a different match up of options, and a slightly different mix of percentages.
But fair criticism, I didn't successfully make a good point with my attempt.
But lets change the example a bit:
- There's a 10% chance of getting shot on any day you leave the house - You are able to get 5 days of food any time you leave the house - There's a 100% chance of starving if you go 8 days without leaving your house
How long can you avoid getting shot or starving?
Presumably if you don't want to go hungry at all, you have to leave the house every 5 days to get more food. After 50 days, the odds of you having been shot are pretty darn high.