The problem with EPA range is that it's a compromise between highway range and city range, so it's almost guaranteed to poorly match your driving unless your daily driving mix equals the averages. This is a consequence of insisting on one number, not inflation.

Inb4 "just pick highway range and be conservative" -- no, because then you will buy a car with great aerodynamics and terrible regen and spend all day driving it around the city using the terrible regen and not using the great aerodynamics.