One theory was to rant at everyone about everything in the hope of getting little random trade concessions from everyone. The squeeky wheel is the one that gets greased or something. The "what" didn't matter.
BUT the ranting is now at the stage where it has created chaos everywhere. And that has been costly everywhere, first of all in the US. Can the concessions make up for that cost? Is anyone in the mood for concessions by now? It's becoming doubtful. A little outrage would have been no big deal, but it seems we are already past that.
I can now see a second theory: if you see a stalemate you don't like - and your position is otherwise somewhat strong - you can kick major mayhem all around you and stand ready to grab what falls back down from people in a less strong situation. A mix of disruption and being bold when the others are fearful. In that situation, the cost of chaos may be acceptable because you believe you can survive that chaos while the others cannot.
I think he is trying to set us up and also occupy the news cycle to distract. We retaliate with tariffs, he blames us for his domestic economic woes and increases tariffs, we retaliate with electricity and potash for leverage, public support for Canada slowly drops. Thus he slowly moves the goal posts eventually to seize these resources because they are of national importance. A stretch? Maybe but look at Panama, Greenland, Ukraine minerals actions.
There is no going back to the previous relationship because Canadians feel betrayed after years of big sibling adoration and blame pre-existing, worsening unrelated domestic issues on Trump’s actions. My honest take of public sentiment is it has taken such a dive at this point if 9/11 happened in this era the passengers landing in Canada could camp out on the runway huddling for warmth by barrels until busses home are arranged.
BUT the ranting is now at the stage where it has created chaos everywhere. And that has been costly everywhere, first of all in the US. Can the concessions make up for that cost? Is anyone in the mood for concessions by now? It's becoming doubtful. A little outrage would have been no big deal, but it seems we are already past that.
I can now see a second theory: if you see a stalemate you don't like - and your position is otherwise somewhat strong - you can kick major mayhem all around you and stand ready to grab what falls back down from people in a less strong situation. A mix of disruption and being bold when the others are fearful. In that situation, the cost of chaos may be acceptable because you believe you can survive that chaos while the others cannot.