OpenAI is a financial black hole, burning cash faster than it can raise it, with a business model built on hype and a product (ChatGPT) that's easily commoditized. Their revenue projections are delusional, and the core API business is surprisingly weak, suggesting the entire generative AI market might be overblown.
I don't care too much about revenues and expenses exactly, but about the sustainability of their capital structure. "Big tranches of convertible debt within a couple years of converting" does sound like a bad sign.
It seems that way but I think it's quite possible in tech for things to rapidly change. E.g. if OpenAI starts quantising all their models, which can maybe reduce their compute costs by 80%, it would be profitable, but make some number of customers leave. Certain other headwinds like decreasing cost of cost per teraflop helps them.
Like Uber I suspect their business model is simply to capex until all their enemies are dead, then jack up prices.
We're in the early days, like back when Uber offered $2.50 rides anywhere in San Francisco. They burned through tons of cash for years but had $9.8bn net income last year.
At least I trust Uber enough that I use it anywhere I don't get to drive my own car. And I have never been in an accident so far.
I don't trust ChatGPT enough to copy its output and be done with my work. Sometimes I spend more time prompting + revising the response than writing it myself from scratch. It's like Uber is so bad that it is faster to walk than getting matched to a driver who very slowly drives to the destination. And yet you get into a car crash during your trip. I doubt Uber would still be in business today.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai-business/