> I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's swamped by other data inluences.
One thing people don't realize is that EVs are going to be SO MASSIVELY CHEAPER than ICE cars that we will see massive changes in behaviour and socioeconomic dynamics in society. I think we will see a day where a new car won't be much more expensive than a new fridge.
What happens when everyone who can afford a fridge can afford a car? And drive it for next to nothing? With car repair basically being a non issue (just throw away and get a new one)?
Some societies are not equipped for that. Roads will need to be repaired much more often (due to EV weight as well). Tire microplastic particles are going to be much bigger problem (but less gas emissions at least). Gas taxes used to pay for road infrastructure in some countries, that doesn't work anymore. Electricity taxes? But then you are taxing people who don't use the roads as much. IoT meters on cars beeping your location to the government (UK actually proposed this)? Battery fire management? Recycling (especially for the batteries)?
Car manufacturing won't be a big industry that matters that much for the overall economy anymore.
Lots of countries where a lot of the population use motorized-scooters/motorcycles will move to use bigger cars. Traffic is going to get much worse everywhere, public transport will become less attractive. Parking demand will skyrocket.
People who already own cars will resist any form of government control to reduce traffic/parking. US car-centric lifestyle will be exported to all of the developing world. If anything the US and Canada are only of the few countries prepared for this new world (the only places where everyone, even poor people, own cars and drive everywhere).
Much simpler than combustion cars and far easier to mass produce. Once it becomes a disposable commodity like smartphones the maintenance supply-chain will be much simpler and cheaper (few issues will be worth fixing instead of just replacing a big chunk of the vehicle or just getting a new one).
Batteries are expensive, but are mostly automated manufacturing. Raw minerals for batteries will become mostly closed-loop in the long-term with recycling (like aluminum). And the prices is going down a lot even without recycling being significant yet.
I imagine you would be able to trade-in your current car and get a big discount for a new one.
One thing people don't realize is that EVs are going to be SO MASSIVELY CHEAPER than ICE cars that we will see massive changes in behaviour and socioeconomic dynamics in society. I think we will see a day where a new car won't be much more expensive than a new fridge.
What happens when everyone who can afford a fridge can afford a car? And drive it for next to nothing? With car repair basically being a non issue (just throw away and get a new one)?
Some societies are not equipped for that. Roads will need to be repaired much more often (due to EV weight as well). Tire microplastic particles are going to be much bigger problem (but less gas emissions at least). Gas taxes used to pay for road infrastructure in some countries, that doesn't work anymore. Electricity taxes? But then you are taxing people who don't use the roads as much. IoT meters on cars beeping your location to the government (UK actually proposed this)? Battery fire management? Recycling (especially for the batteries)?
Car manufacturing won't be a big industry that matters that much for the overall economy anymore.
Lots of countries where a lot of the population use motorized-scooters/motorcycles will move to use bigger cars. Traffic is going to get much worse everywhere, public transport will become less attractive. Parking demand will skyrocket.
People who already own cars will resist any form of government control to reduce traffic/parking. US car-centric lifestyle will be exported to all of the developing world. If anything the US and Canada are only of the few countries prepared for this new world (the only places where everyone, even poor people, own cars and drive everywhere).