Inflation is caused by more money chasing after less stuff. If you keep the money supply constant, but reduce the amount of stuff you can buy with it, you will just as surely create inflation as printing money would.

no, it's the complete opposite. any increase in costs to society means wages have to go up to offset those costs which is what inflation is.

Consumption isn't the only driver of inflation.

The excess private borrowing to pay tariffs or higher cost supply lines to keep business moving, especially where the govt is using the money to give tax breaks to people already well above the income/consumption curve, is going to drive a spike in inflation.

As we've seen with covid and post covid cycles companies will adjust margins and increase profits after these spikes rather than reduce costs further increasing the length and impacts of inflation spikes.

On top of that I expect more performative crap like checks sent out in Trump's name that aren't enough to actually help for more than a single grocery bill, but drive debt and inflation up further overall.

It'll be a fun ride.