His wording is specifically "I think there is a less than zero chance that we did not go to the moon", i.e. he's not 100% sure but pretty sure we landed on the moon.

I think you are being quite generous to him here. He is not saying there is a non zero chance that it didn't happen similar to how there is a non zero chance your entire existence is the dream of a child who is about to wake up. He spends the next fourteen minutes weighing the supposed reasons for why it might have happened and why it might have not happened. Seven years ago he clearly stated that he believed in the moon landing. Here he is actually sowing doubts about the event.

Take it as you will. OP responded to another user saying maybe if there was fly-over video evidence it might convince someone like Rogan as clearly he is not entirely convinced yet. I think that's a fair assessment.