Yes, there’s research showing that models’ self-assessment of probabilities (when you ask them via prompting) don’t even match the same models’ actual probabilities, in cases where you can measure the probabilities directly (e.g. by looking at the logits): https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.13264
Logits are not probabilities... at least not in the way you understand probability. Probabilities mathematically are anything that broadly behaves like a probability, whereas colloquially probabilities represent the likelihood or the preponderance of a particular phenomenon. Logits are not either of those.
