> several reports recently that the interest on our debt will exceed the defense budget within the next couple of years. Is that not accurate?
This happened, I believe, in FY 2024 [1][2].
We're currently running a 6.5% primary deficit/GDP [3]. With real GDP growing around 2.5% a year [4], that means we need to cut about 4% of GDP, or $1.2tn [5], to stabilise our debt/GDP ratio. That's two Medicaids [6]. (Which would probably trigger a recession.)
This happened, I believe, in FY 2024 [1][2].
We're currently running a 6.5% primary deficit/GDP [3]. With real GDP growing around 2.5% a year [4], that means we need to cut about 4% of GDP, or $1.2tn [5], to stabilise our debt/GDP ratio. That's two Medicaids [6]. (Which would probably trigger a recession.)
[1] https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudg... $842bn
[2] https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/the_baseline_and_inte... $870bn
[3] https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/deficit-tracker/
[4] https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/06/how-much-did-the-us-...
[5] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
[6] https://www.pgpf.org/article/budget-explainer-medicaid/