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Humans are notoriously bad at extrapolating exponentials.


... and many people who make this claim are notoriously prone to extrapolating exponential trends into a far longer future than the exponential trend model is suitable for.

Addendum: Extrapolating exponentials is actually very easy for humans: just plot the y axis on a logarithmic scale and draw a "plausible looking line" in the diagram. :-)


ah the 'everything is linear on a log-log plot when drawn with a fat marker' argument :)


In the Dune universe the AI's are banned.




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