The thing that is going to lead to programmers being laid off and fired all over has and will continue to be market consolidation in the tech industry. The auto industry did the same thing in the 1950s which destroyed detroit.
Market consolidation allows big tech to remain competitive even after the quality of software has been turned into shit by offshoring and multiple rounds of wage compression/layoffs. Eventually all software will end up like JIRA or SAP but you won't have much choice but to deal with it because the competition will be stifled.
AI is actually probably having a very positive effect on hiring that is offsetting this effect. The reason they love using it as a scapegoat is that you can't fight the inevitable march of technological progress whereas you absolutely CAN break up big tech.
Market consolidation allows big tech to remain competitive even after the quality of software has been turned into shit by offshoring and multiple rounds of wage compression/layoffs. Eventually all software will end up like JIRA or SAP but you won't have much choice but to deal with it because the competition will be stifled.
AI is actually probably having a very positive effect on hiring that is offsetting this effect. The reason they love using it as a scapegoat is that you can't fight the inevitable march of technological progress whereas you absolutely CAN break up big tech.