I think that’s entirely the problem. You’re making linear predictions of the capabilities of non-linear processes. Eventually the predictions and the reality will diverge.
Every time someone claimed “emerging” behavior in LLMs it was exactly that. I can probably count more than 100 of these cases, many unpublished, but surely it is easy to find evidence by now.
Not quite, but it was the closest pithy quote I could think of to convey the point that things can be false for a long time before they are suddenly true without warning.
How about "Yes, they laughed at Galileo, but they also laughed at Bozo the Clown?"
We heard alllllll the same hype about how revolutionary the blockchain was going to be and look how that turned out.
It's a virtue to point out the emperor has no clothes. It's not a virtue to insist clothes tech is close to being revolutionary and if you just understand it harder, you'd see the space where the clothes go.
I think that’s entirely the problem. You’re making linear predictions of the capabilities of non-linear processes. Eventually the predictions and the reality will diverge.