It's complicated. On the one hand Nvidia is supply constrained, so anything that makes AI better and more efficient (and therefore more usable by the masses) is bullish for it. On the other, a significant chunk of research lower tier large GenAI orgs have been doing is now obsolete, so they might reduce their cloud spend until they gain their bearings and reset at a higher level using DeepSeek's models and insights. Furthermore, the gap between open source and top tier behemoths has shrunk considerably last week. For the first time you can run a practically usable reasoning LLM on your MacBook Pro with 64GB of RAM or more. In the mind of the normies (some of whom are investors) this puts future profitability of top tier research into question. This is a midwit take - top labs have much more than they show, but that might not matter if investors get cold feet, with secondary effects on NVIDIA and those staggeringly large planned investments into AI. Still, NVIDIA is a monopolist for GPU compute. That is not going to change in the foreseeable future, and they will remain supply constrained in the foreseeable future, and therefore able to exercise considerable pricing power. So my bet is: short term pullback, long term bullish.

In fact you could see the bullish case last night: Deepseek's free chat service got overloaded and crapped out due to lack of GPU capacity. That's bullish for NVIDIA.