1 and 2 are right, 3 and 4 are dead wrong. There are massive opportunities out there and it isn't a problem focusing on hypergrowth and exits. It is however a problem that even when these massive growth and exits do happen the payout is usually not worth it for all but the founders and VCs.
If you stay too long and the company does grow, but your salary doesn't keep up, and you decide to leave you now have to either abandon your options or buy them and pay taxes on an overinflated FMV (if I can't sell them then the FMV is 0 to me). You are now left with options that are, at best, worthless for a long time or most likely worthless forever. Meanwhile founders have gotten money from internal raises to keep them going and have some ability to make sure their shares have value when an exit happens. Staying means you watch year after year as your options continue to not be worth anything and your share of the company continues to be cut as rounds of funding happen all the while watching as people at a FANG are making 50% more than you.
The only strategy that has a chance at any value is leaving early and leaving often or coming in very late to have a real salary and a chance at a minor boost on your options when an exit happens. If you are an early employee (20 or less, and your options are valued at ~0.10 or less) AND you think there is some chance the company will 'make it' then buy a few k of your options as soon as they vest and leave after 1-1.5 years to go to the next place. This avoids taxes on worthless options and gives you some shot at maybe having one give you some value back. If you are any later than that then don't buy your options and make sure you get a salary that is competitive and still leave after 2-3 years if the company hasn't made it. The options are probably going to be worthless but now you are using them to grow in ability and salary.
Options as compensation is a lie and that is the core problem.
If you stay too long and the company does grow, but your salary doesn't keep up, and you decide to leave you now have to either abandon your options or buy them and pay taxes on an overinflated FMV (if I can't sell them then the FMV is 0 to me). You are now left with options that are, at best, worthless for a long time or most likely worthless forever. Meanwhile founders have gotten money from internal raises to keep them going and have some ability to make sure their shares have value when an exit happens. Staying means you watch year after year as your options continue to not be worth anything and your share of the company continues to be cut as rounds of funding happen all the while watching as people at a FANG are making 50% more than you.
The only strategy that has a chance at any value is leaving early and leaving often or coming in very late to have a real salary and a chance at a minor boost on your options when an exit happens. If you are an early employee (20 or less, and your options are valued at ~0.10 or less) AND you think there is some chance the company will 'make it' then buy a few k of your options as soon as they vest and leave after 1-1.5 years to go to the next place. This avoids taxes on worthless options and gives you some shot at maybe having one give you some value back. If you are any later than that then don't buy your options and make sure you get a salary that is competitive and still leave after 2-3 years if the company hasn't made it. The options are probably going to be worthless but now you are using them to grow in ability and salary.
Options as compensation is a lie and that is the core problem.