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I'm going through more of the Wikipedia category entries.

AA 1420 (1999) is notable for similarities with Jeju 2216:

The aircraft continued past the end of the runway, traveling another 800 feet (240 m; 270 yd), and striking a security fence and an ILS localizer array. The aircraft then collided with a structure built to support the approach lights for Runway 22L, which extended out into the Arkansas River. Such structures are usually frangible, designed to shear off on impact, but because the approach lights were located on the unstable river bank, they were firmly anchored. The collision with the sturdy structure crushed the airplane's nose, and destroyed the left side of the plane's fuselage, from the cockpit back to the first two rows of coach seating. The impact broke the aircraft apart into large sections, which came to a rest short of the river bank.

Captain Buschmann and 8 of the plane's 139 passengers were immediately killed in the crash; another two passengers died in the hospital in the weeks that followed.

145 souls, 139 pax, 6 crew, 11 fatalities, 110 injured, 134 survivors.

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_1420>

Even though this aircraft also hit an ILS structure, fatalities were far lower than those of Jeju 2216, likely as AA 1420 had decelerated significantly both on the runway (despite severely limited wheel and air brakes) and its subsequent 240 cross-terrain slide.

Atlantic Airways Flight 670 (2006) literally fell off a cliff. 4 fatalities of 16 souls. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Airways_Flight_670>

Bangkok Airways Flight 266 (2009) literally struck a (presumably nonfrangible) control tower. 1 fatality, 71 souls. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangkok_Airways_Flight_266>



I looked up the AA 1420 crash report (linked from Wikipedia) and it says:

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/...

> The calculated ground trajectory indicated that the flight 1420 airplane departed runway 4R at about 97 knots and impacted the runway 22L approach lighting system support structure at about 83 knots.

97 knots is 112 mph. Somewhere below another commenter said Jeju Air 2216 left the runway at about 160 knots (184 mph). It's a pretty big difference.

I'm no expert, but my guess is that the main distinguishing factor of all the accidents where most/all survived is not the lack of killer berms, but the speed of the plane when it left the runway.


1420 airplane departed runway 4R at about 97 knots and impacted the runway 22L approach lighting system support structure at about 83 knots.

That's a more explicit restatement of my own "likely as AA 1420 had decelerated significantly both on the runway ... and its subsequent 240 cross-terrain slide."

Jeju 2216's lack of braking authority may have resulted from a dual engine outage, possibly a consequence of pilot error, noted here:

<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42605837>

Absent the ILS structure, the aircraft would have had ~300-500m to decelerate across largely forgiving terrain before possibly encountering fairly light structures, and ultimately bay waters, detailed here:

<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42607464>

As I've noted already, we're waiting on investigation conclusions to understand further, though it's entertaining to speculate, and IMO somewhat more productive to look at similar events and history.




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