I think you're right, and I don't think it's just about public content being "exploited" to train AI models and the like. Rather, even before LLMs, there was a growing sense that publishing ideas or essays publicly is "risky" with very little reward for the very real risks.
Speaking personally, among my social circle of "normie" college-educated millennials working in fields like finance, sales, hospitality, retail, IT, medicine, civil engineering, and law -- I am one of the few who runs a semi-active personal site. Thinking about it for a moment, out of a group of 50-or-so people like this, spread across several US states, I might be the only one who has a public essay archive or blog. Yet among this same group you'll find Instagram posters, TikTok'ers, and prolific DM authors in more private spaces like WhatsApp and Signal groups. A handful of them have admitted to being lurkers on Reddit or Twitter/X, but not one is a poster.
It isn't just due to a lack of technical ability, although that's a (minor) contributing factor. If that were all, they'd all be publishing to Substack, but they're not. It's that engaging with "the public" via writing is seen as an exhausting proposition at odds with everyday middle class life.
Why? My guesses: a) smartphones aren't designed for writing and editing, hardware-wise; b) long-form writing/editing is hard and most people aren't built for it; c) the dynamics of modern internet aggregation and agglomeration makes it hard to find independent sites/publishers anyway; and d) the risk of your developed view on anything being "out there" (whether professional risk or friendship risk) seems higher than any sort of potential reward.
On the bright side, for people who fancy themselves public intellectuals or public writers, hosting your own censorship-resistant publishing infrastructure has never been easier or cheaper. And for amateur writers like me, I can take advantage of the same.
But I think everyday internet users are falling into a lull of treating the modern internet as little more than a source of short-form video entertainment, streams for music/podcasts, and a personal assistant for the sundries of daily life. Aside from placating boredom, they just use their smartphones to make appointment reminders, send texts to a partner/spouse, place e-commerce orders, and check off family todo lists, etc. I expect LLMs will make this worse as a younger generation may view long-form writing not as a form of expression but instead as a chore to automate away.
I wrote about this a little in "The Blog Chill":
https://amontalenti.com/2023/12/28/the-blog-chill
Speaking personally, among my social circle of "normie" college-educated millennials working in fields like finance, sales, hospitality, retail, IT, medicine, civil engineering, and law -- I am one of the few who runs a semi-active personal site. Thinking about it for a moment, out of a group of 50-or-so people like this, spread across several US states, I might be the only one who has a public essay archive or blog. Yet among this same group you'll find Instagram posters, TikTok'ers, and prolific DM authors in more private spaces like WhatsApp and Signal groups. A handful of them have admitted to being lurkers on Reddit or Twitter/X, but not one is a poster.
It isn't just due to a lack of technical ability, although that's a (minor) contributing factor. If that were all, they'd all be publishing to Substack, but they're not. It's that engaging with "the public" via writing is seen as an exhausting proposition at odds with everyday middle class life.
Why? My guesses: a) smartphones aren't designed for writing and editing, hardware-wise; b) long-form writing/editing is hard and most people aren't built for it; c) the dynamics of modern internet aggregation and agglomeration makes it hard to find independent sites/publishers anyway; and d) the risk of your developed view on anything being "out there" (whether professional risk or friendship risk) seems higher than any sort of potential reward.
On the bright side, for people who fancy themselves public intellectuals or public writers, hosting your own censorship-resistant publishing infrastructure has never been easier or cheaper. And for amateur writers like me, I can take advantage of the same.
But I think everyday internet users are falling into a lull of treating the modern internet as little more than a source of short-form video entertainment, streams for music/podcasts, and a personal assistant for the sundries of daily life. Aside from placating boredom, they just use their smartphones to make appointment reminders, send texts to a partner/spouse, place e-commerce orders, and check off family todo lists, etc. I expect LLMs will make this worse as a younger generation may view long-form writing not as a form of expression but instead as a chore to automate away.