> But that's itself a large part of why I believe those arguments are false. If I gave them credit and they turned out to be false, then I figure I have succumbed to a form of Pascal's Mugging. If I don't give them credit and it turns out that a hostile, agentive AGI has been pretending to be aligned, I don't expect anyone (including myself) to survive long enough to rub it in my face.

I'm sorry, but this is a crazy reason to believe something is false. Things are either true or they aren't, and if the world would be nicer to live in if thing X was false does not actually bear on whether thing X is false or not.