Your electric bill 20 years from now is just as likely to go down as it is to go up.

In two decades, we could see advancements like mobile generators offering free power, ultra-affordable battery packs delivered to homes to meet energy needs, or even the widespread adoption of low-cost fusion energy.

The key takeaway is that predicting the future cost of electricity is as challenging as it was to predict today’s solar energy costs—now far lower than anyone expected.

None of what you just said is even vaguely realistic. Prices can’t drop below zero but they can easily more than double, so even if you assume equal odds in either direction it doesn’t cancel out. Worse, any physical device is going to have a cost to produce it which requires charging people to use it thus they can’t even drop to 0.

Beyond that none of their prices or timelines are accurate, even ignoring the issues with inflation.

When did PGE prices ever go down?

Neither option I mentioned would require PGE or a centralized entity. Both options would be off-grid.

    > mobile generators offering free power

Wow, where is this magical place? I want to move there. :)

Mobile Solar Generator Feasibility

With solar technology, powering a home with a mobile generator is possible. Yes, the generator and batteries will have associated costs, but the long-term benefits make it worthwhile. This assumes uninterrupted access to sunlight over the next 20 years without new restrictions.

Key Considerations:

Energy Need: The average home uses 30 kWh/day, requiring 6 kW/hour over 5 peak sunlight hours.

Multijunction Panels: Lab efficiencies are already at 47% (2023), and with 20 years of progress, 60% efficiency is probable.

Efficiency Impact: At 60% efficiency, panels generate 600 W/m², requiring 10 m² (e.g., 2 m × 5 m) to meet energy needs. This size fits on most home roofs or could be mounted on a pole or hung through an apartment window.

System Components:

High-efficiency solar panels.

30 kWh battery storage for nighttime or cloudy days. An inverter to convert solar DC power to home AC power. Outcome:

A mobile solar generator with advanced panels and efficient storage provides a sustainable and portable solution for powering homes.

Doing that is what installing solar is

So you’re assuming the big competition for home solar is… home solar but ignoring what makes home solar expensive (permits, electricians, tariffs etc panels are already shockingly cheap). Installing solar in 15 years also means you’ve lost 15 years of cheap solar power and are buying panels after inflation, waiting just hasn’t seen instillation costs drop for a while.

But you’re also wildly mistaken about the rest, it’s not actually 47% or now 47.1% efficient when placed outside. Panels get more efficient as extreme levels of light so people going after records create wildly irrelevant numbers as a dick measuring contest.

Further the day someone invents 60% efficient panels isn’t the day we put those suckers into mass production we hit 40% in 2006, but they are nowhere near commercially viable for home installations. We might see widespread use of 60% efficient panels long after we’re dead, but that’s not exactly relevant for these calculations.

It seems like we're talking past each other. My main point, as stated in the parent response, is that there is a plausible future where energy prices, adjusted for inflation, could decline rather than continually increase.

Many here are relying on inductive reasoning, arguing that since this hasn't happened historically, it can't happen in the future. I'm presenting a counterpoint: with current technology and 20 years of advancement, this outcome is entirely possible.

To clarify, I'm not suggesting that mobile generators and solar panels would be free. Rather, the energy they generate could become effectively free. The current challenge is that centralized grids are often necessary because we can't store enough solar energy in batteries. However, with advancements in battery technology over the next 20 years, it could become possible to go completely grid-less. If that happens, we could see significantly lower energy prices—something we should remain as open to as the possibility of higher prices, all on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Specifically in terms of batteries, you can also add batteries to an existing solar installation.

Rather than competition what you’re describing is a way to increase the value of installing solar today.

> adjusted for inflation

I brought up inflation because buying a hedge that keeps up with inflation and selling it in the future results in paying taxes on that nominal increase in value but saving money doesn’t have that penalty. You also lose out on the lost productivity from a solar while waiting for prices to drop so it takes a lot more than just moderate inflation adjusted savings to make waiting advantageous.

Now you're sounding all pie in the sky. The cold hard reality is that hedge funds and billionaires control most power utilities and lobby governments to keep the cash flowing.

We know for certain that pricing is going to get really bad in CA due to a 2022 law that permits PG&E and other utilities to charge large connection fees based on your income (will probably hit in 2026).

I would gladly be the counterparty to any wager that 20 years from now electricity is going to be cheaper.