Both linear and using the current exponent are likely to be wildly off.
If you assume it’s ~26% annual growth now, and drops by 2% per year so 24% next year then in 10 years you’ll see 4.25x last years installs and the cumulative initiation over the next decade is 2.8x a linear estimate.
IMO that’s probably a reasonable ballpark, though capacity factors are an open question as they could fall dramatically or maintain fairly steady depending on how much grid storage shows up.
If you assume it’s ~26% annual growth now, and drops by 2% per year so 24% next year then in 10 years you’ll see 4.25x last years installs and the cumulative initiation over the next decade is 2.8x a linear estimate.
IMO that’s probably a reasonable ballpark, though capacity factors are an open question as they could fall dramatically or maintain fairly steady depending on how much grid storage shows up.