What stops me from predicting both "sides" of a particular event, and only revealing the ones that came true?

Exactly. It's a classic magician's trick (and featured in a Columbo episode!)

Maybe if there is a way to see all predictions made by someone, it would be more compelling.

Thank you for the comments!

I've been thinking about introducing auth and coupling quotes to specific accounts. If this is high on the wishlist I might need to think about that!

Again, thanks!

Somewhat a different take. I am ok with people who are predicting events which are like broken clock is right twice in a day. Because, one needs to find the right broken clock, decipher the time at which the clock has stopped and choose opportune times or precursor events in the world to adverstise his/her predictions. Get these things right are crucial so that others take you seriously.

Yeah, prediction markets are better for this. With time you build an incontrovertible track record of getting things right.

On the other hand, this kind of service could be better adapted to the social reality. A prediction market can reveal the "wrong" people to be right, whereas this would probably be used more by people who are already well known and expected to be right. By only revealing correct predictions, people considered smart would not risk their status.

Looking at patio11's record on Manifold, for example, you will see that he is quite clueless about the world. Had he used tolduvault instead, he would have continued to appear smart.

> Looking at patio11's record on Manifold, for example, you will see that he is quite clueless about the world

I wouldn't say that, necessarily. It's hard to tell the difference between a good predictor who got unlucky vs a bad predictor who got lucky, at a glance (it's also hard to discern which bets were placed "for fun" vs as a rational choice).

Activity on Polymarket is public, but (for now) topics are manually moderated. Prediction markets do the important step of spelling out exactly how to settle these claims.

Theres a little feedback widget in the bottom right corner, would love for you all to provide feedback if you have ideas/suggestions positive and negative.

(disclaimer: Feedback service is also created by me)

Why use this service instead of posting on a social media platform of your choice?

Especially since on social media it’s more difficult to make multiple predictions without people noticing.

I agree, but most social media allows for delitions or edits. I hate to suggest it, but would timestamped uneditable claims be something blockchain is suited to?

I wanted something very siple without auth. Introducing auth would probably set a higher bar for people wanting to try out the service.

One option would be to have all quotes publicly available in some sort of list (it was in the beginning but turned out to be a SPAM bot).

Do you have any suggestions for improvement, don't hesitate to comment :)

Edits usually have an indicator that an edit has beed made; or cannot be made after some time passes.

First of all, thank you for all your comments. If you have any requests or wishes or areas where it could be improved, please don't hesitate to reach out.

Thanks!

I like it how so many developers I know built something similar, but you nailed it down on how to message this to a wider audience.

Thanks! :)