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I think your idea is basically right, but there are two points to consider:

- Your hypothesis only holds if the alternative LLM is also "sufficiently good". If Gemini does not stay competitive with other LLMs, Google's AI plans have a much more serious problem.

- Your hypothesis assumes that many people will be capable of detecting the watermarks (both of Gemini and other LLMs) so that they can make a conscious choice for another LLM. But the idea behind good watermarking is that it is not that easy to detect.



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