When USA and Japan wake up from their gasoline obsession the world would have moved on and Asia, South America and Africa would be on Chinese Evs. Europe will drive EU made cars from Chinese and European brands.
Yep, they saw long ago that gasoline was on its way out, and decided hydrogen was the fuel of the future. Unfortunately, it seems they bet on the wrong horse, and now are extremely reluctant to admit this and try to change gears and move to EVs.
Outside of BYD, Every Chinese EV is losing money with every sale. Insiders say that every one of them will fold within the next 3 years. and when the EV company disappears, your car is now a worthless block of metal.
Nobody should be buying Chinese EVs, and only BYD if you have to.
We've banned this account for using HN primarily for nationalistic battle, as well as several of your other accounts doing the same. That's not allowed here, regardless of which country you have a problem with.
Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. It will eventually get your main account banned as well.
>every one of them will fold within the next 3 years
The same way China has been predicted to collapse every year since 1990? No matter how much money you lose, you can grow yourself out of it. Which is why OpenAI can raise $6b at nearly $150b, despite losing $5b annually. So, why do you suggest the CPC will let BYD - their EV golden goose that has thoroughly thrashed Western competitors - to fail?
The idea that an economy with so much production would fully collapse is kind of far-fetched, but it also seemed like there were some major issues last I looked. Their housing bubble did burst and there have been periodic bank runs. I haven't been following Chinese news for a while now though so I couldn't tell you where things ended up.
Who predicted Chinas imminent collapse back then? It was certainly not a mainstream prediction.
More serious predictions have been made in recent years. And lo and behold we got Evergrande. The news since that has not been great. Some successes, and progress, yes. But also more and more deep fundamental issues brewing under the surface.
Nobody of note has claimed China will collapse over night. This is a process that spans over years if not decades.
The predictions of collapse have had demographics as its primary factor. People don’t go from 40 to 70 overnight. Yet the demographic factors are completely undeniable and its consequences bearing out year by year relentlessly.
And that is on top of a debt to GDP ratio which is utterly insane if you include shadow banking.
No, not like that. This is a case where China has offered disgusting subsidies to anyone willing to make an EV. And therefore tons of companies have done so with no intention of ever really being a car company
>According to Bloomberg, there were 500 Chinese electric car manufacturers in China in 2019. After fierce competition, only 100 manufacturers remained by 2023. According to Wired, as many as 300 manufacturers, both domestic and international, were offering electric vehicles in China in 2023. (wikipedia)
looks more like a capitalist free for all than a few state appointed winners. BYD got a big boost in the early days when it got investment from the US company Berkshire Hathaway, rather than the Chinese govt. Which was because Charlie Munger thought the founder seemed like a new Thomas Edison.
The reason there were 500 manufacturers in the first place was the enormous subsidies.
The Chinese government strategy is to fund a massive number of attempts and then suffer a huge number of failures and consistent end up with far too much production capacity leading to a large number of unprofitable companies.
It’s not a terrible strategy if you can dump vehicles elsewhere. It may or may not work if you can’t.
Parent account is two months old and looking at his comments, practically all of them are bashing China. 2 Questions: 1. Does your org. really think this works? and 2. How much do you get paid for doing this and where can I apply?
> when the EV company disappears, your car is now a worthless block of metal.
This sounds like a problem, but it doesn't have to be. I've driven cars from brands that no longer exist and some parts were a challenge, but largely you could make everything work. It's unfortunate that new cars aren't like that. :(
EVs (and all newer cars) aren't really comparable to a car from the 90s or early 2000s. Finding spare parts is one thing, dealing with electrical issues is a much bigger beast.
I drive a 24 year old Lexus - mechanically, an absolute tank. Electrically? Well, it's relatively "electronic" by the standards of its time, and it shows. If I coughed up the money to fix the handful of little electrical glitches it's picked up over the years, I'd be paying more than the car is worth. It'd cost more than all the other work I've done on it combined.
The headlights don't switch on automatically anymore, and you have to manually lock all of the doors (except the driver's door which mysteriously still works). I can live with that! The powertrain isn't inundated with electrical stuff, which makes it less susceptible to the weirdness that comes with aging sensors, rotting wire harnesses, corroding electrical contacts, moisture ingress, and so on.
losing money because of heavy competition, because of free market, too much competition. not because some evil intent to sell below cost. Every auto exec is complaining the market is too tough.
