You're assuming we'll see the same exponential improvements as it has had in the past two years, and there are no signs that this will happen
> The thing is, once you're used to that kind of productivity, you can't come back.
Somehow everyone who sees "amazing unbelievable productivity gains" assumes that their experience is the only true experience, and whoever says otherwise lies or doesn't have the skills or whatever.
I've tried it with Swift and Elixir. I didn't see any type of "this kind of productivity" for several reasons:
- one you actually mentioned: "working with it more like i would work with a junior dev, and slowly iterating on the features"
It's an eager junior with no understanding of anything. "Slowly iterating on features" does not scream "this kind of productivity"
- it's a token prediction machine limited by it's undocumented and unknowable training set.
So if most of its data comes from 2022, it will keep predicting tokens from that time even if it's no longer valid, or deprecated, or superseded by better approaches. I gave up trying to fix its invalid and or deprecated output for a particular part of code after 4 attempts, and just rewrote it myself.
These systems are barely capable of outputting well-known boilerplate code. Much less "this kind of productivity" for whatever it means
What you describe was my experience (with swift code too, on mobile). Until i tried it with web dev. Then maybe it’s due to the popularity of web tech compared to swift, i don’t know ( I should try it with react native to see), but there is absolute no doubt in my mind the time it took to build my website is 10 or 100 times faster ( 2 hours for something that could have taken me a week).
It’s easy coming up with the first version of a web app, especially if you have a mockup. There’s a lot of css and JS frameworks because of how common the use cases are and how easy it is to start solving them. It’s the iteration that sucks. Browser mismatch, difference between mobile and desktops, tools and libraries deprecation,… that’s why you take lot of care in the beginning so you don’t end up in a tar pit.
Granted, i picked a very unoriginal problem (a basic form-oriented website), but we're just at the very beginning.
The thing is, once you're used to that kind of productivity, you can't come back.