The US is a bit like pre-WW2 Germany, in the sense that a group of power-hungry, self-proclaimed defenders of the people want to overtake government, by whatever means, and suppress basic rights for large groups, based on political conviction and ethnicity.
The world isn't pre-WW1. Russia stands alone in its conflict with Ukraine, and Palestine's neighbors don't give a shit. The only thing that could turn it into a wide scale war, is use of nuclear weapons. It would be a madman's hubris, not geopolitical games of a fading elite that drives the process.
I wouldn't say that, they just can't do anything about it or whatever they do is emotionally triggered retaliation without thought or strategy such as firing rockets into Israel of which very few explode on land or nor cause any real casualties to Israel.
Had Egypt been ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood they'd likely retaliate against Israel. Then there's Turkey, a serious regional power, they seem to do give some shit, they just can't do much about it.
I agree, it was not a very nuanced way of putting it, but by and large it seems to be true.
I don't know if Turkey is really that vested in the topic. They had good relations with Israel, and they really don't want to ally with Iran. It seems more of another PR stunt for internal indignation by Erdogan.
The Egyptians people treat their refugees quite badly. The Muslim Brotherhood also doesn't care about Palestine and the Palestinians, it cares about Hamas and Israel. If they ran the country, they could have used it as a pretext for military action, but how likely would they have been to succeed? And it still wouldn't escalate the conflict to extra-regional levels, unless Israel, in a fit of Biblical retaliation, would then invade Egypt as well.
Actually, there are lots of things that could happen to "tip the cart" still.
Though unlikely, Trump could (conceivably) win, ditch Ukraine exactly as promised (not in 24 hours but over time), which would of course deeply embolden Putin (and/or lead to a nuclear escalation in itself, particularly if Ukraine does something really desperate). Putin could die (or be assassinated) and easily be replaced with someone way more ideological and/or simply stupid.
Farther afield: though it would irrational in every respect -- China could make its move on Taiwan. And as always, in the Middle East, anything can happen (especially if the current government in Israel stays in power and continues to radicalize and throw oil on the fire).
Any of these could escalate on its own. But it is the prospect of the these three theatres deteriorating rapidly at once that has people up at night. Not so much on WWI or WWII lines, but a different kind of global conflagration altogether.
I'm not a doomer on the prospect, but it's by no means out of the question. These are indeed very unsafe times.
(As an aside, and in line with what the other commenter, it's just not true to say that Palestine's neighbors "don't give a shit". Their interest may not be altruistic, but to many of them the situation there is deeply significant, for a host of geopolitical, ideological, and religious reasons).
True. That would turn the world into chaos pretty quickly.
> it's just not true to say that Palestine's neighbors "don't give a shit".
I agree it was short on nuance, but there's little evidence that they ever cared. I mean: Egypt has kept the border closed, and treats the Palestinian refugees badly.
Egypt has kept the border closed, and treats the Palestinian refugees badly.
At present the border is closed because Israel captured it back in May.
As to the rest -- one could delve further into this, but it would start to drift from the subject of the original thread. For the time being would seem best to stick with less controversial topics, like Hitler and Stalin.
The world isn't pre-WW1. Russia stands alone in its conflict with Ukraine, and Palestine's neighbors don't give a shit. The only thing that could turn it into a wide scale war, is use of nuclear weapons. It would be a madman's hubris, not geopolitical games of a fading elite that drives the process.