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> Self-driving was pretty bad a year ago

The threshold for acceptable self-driving is genuine effort from the automated system to avoid accidents as we can't punish it for bad driving. And I want auditable proof of that.

> Image generators now exceed 99.9% of humans in painting/drawing abilities.

I'm pretty sure the amount of people that can draw is less than that. And they can beat image generators by a mile as those generators are mostly doing automated matte painting. Yes copy-paste is faster than typing, but that's not write a novel.

> Text generators are decent...but I'd say they write better than 90% of humans.

Humans use language to communicate. And while there are bad communicators, I think lots of people are doing ok on that front. Text generators can be perfect syntax-wise, but the intent has to come from someone. And the produced text's quality is proportional to the amount of intent that it produces (that's why corporate language is so bland).

> Video generators are in their infancy - we get decent quality, but absolutely mental imagery.*

See Image Generator section, but in motion.

> Reasoning is the weakest point, in my opinion... If they can figure out reasoning

That's the 1-billion dollar question.



> The threshold for acceptable self-driving is genuine effort from the automated system to avoid accidents as we can't punish it for bad driving. And I want auditable proof of that.

You can have any standard of safety that you want, that's absolutely your choice. Plenty of automated systems that your life depends on that you have never audited and never will. That includes elevators, cars, planes, all kinds of medical gear, etc.

My standard is simpler: whenever the AI is safer than the average human driver, it already saves lives.

> I'm pretty sure the amount of people that can draw is less than that.

You probably have some esoteric definition of "people that can draw". Anyone capable of holding a pen/pencil/brush can draw.

> And while there are bad communicators, I think lots of people are doing ok on that front

Look at the previous comment. Seems like you overestimated even your own communication skills :)

> Text generators can be perfect syntax-wise, but the intent has to come from someone.

I'm hoping that we will achieve the level of AI writing where you can prompt "write me an interesting sci-fi book", and it does. Not much intent here, much artificial intelligence required.




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