For the sake of simplicity -- I'm assuming Trump won't win at this point (it could happen but the odds are looking quite low). And unlike Trump, the new administration won't simply drop-kick Ukraine or otherwise be in a hurry to cut a dirty deal just to get this thing over with.
Yet you're fine with handwaving
I'm not; I'm saying it's a question I'll trust to the Ukrainians to evaluate and decide for themselves.
That's something entirely different from what you're suggesting that I said.
[Don't underestimate resilience of dictatorships; the Iran-Iraq war went on for 8 years]
That's actually an argument for why time is more on Ukraine's side.
If Russia gives up after 8 years, or even 10 or 15 -- then Ukraine will have squarely won.
One can think of different ways to assess the likely outcome of an election -- but a betting market (with its gigantic built-in biases) would have to be one of the dodgiest.
Meanwhile reliable polls show a steady Harris lead.
Yet you're fine with handwaving
I'm not; I'm saying it's a question I'll trust to the Ukrainians to evaluate and decide for themselves.
That's something entirely different from what you're suggesting that I said.
[Don't underestimate resilience of dictatorships; the Iran-Iraq war went on for 8 years]
That's actually an argument for why time is more on Ukraine's side.
If Russia gives up after 8 years, or even 10 or 15 -- then Ukraine will have squarely won.