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Well, Argentina has been in recession for more than a decade. Now, he's cut 30% of the government spending and... the economy is back to growth.

So, sorry for destroying your Keynesian beliefs.




Back to growth?

This month uptick YoY appears to be driven by their agricultural sector which last year had suffered due to a severe drought.

The IMF just revised their GDP projections down from -2.8% to -3.5% for this year.

Seems a wee bit premature to start gloating.


> Argentina has been in recession for more than a decade.

To the rest of us layman not familiar with your language, they just entered into a recession earlier this year[1]. And on behalf of us laymen, we'd love to know more about the etymology and context of your use of "more than a decade". To the rest of us, that normally means 10s of years, not mere months.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-jobless-rat...


Well, nominal GDP was US $642.5b in 2015 and they haven't recovered yet. And if you measure real gdp (not nominal), even worse. What do you call having lower GDP year after year? I call it recession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Argentina


How is that US$642.5b calculated? IIRC in 2015 we had at least two values for the dollar/pesos ratio. The official one was like 10AR$/US$, but you could buy a small amount of dollars at that value. And the street value (so called "blue dolar") was like 15AR$/US$. So which one was used? It's like a 50% difference.

(Now we had like 10 definitions of the dollar/pesos ratio. The official one is 950AR$/US$ but it's almost imposible to buy at that price. To buy dollars, the prices are around 1300AR$/US$ or 1500AR$/US$ depending on the day of the week.)


I just used the data available in Wikipedia. Instead, if we go to official data from Argentina's INDEC (national institute of statistics) we get a more reliable picture. Here [1] we see they show annual GDP (called PIB in Spanish) in constant prices of 2004 (so, they correct it by inflation). In page 6 you can see this image [2], where you see that yes, GDP hasn't really grown at all since 2011 (which is more than a decade ago). And this is aggregate GDP, but population has grown, so GDP per capita has gone down.

[1] https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_06_242... [2] https://i.imgur.com/f0pIiFE.png


In 2015 the situation of the INDEC was strange, the inflation was underestimated [1] and also the dollar/peso ratio was fictional. So take all that numbers with a grain of salt. However I agree that there is (almost) no gro in the GDP in a long time. [2]

[1] Comparison of the official inflation rate and the unofficial one published by the oposition in the congress: https://economictrends.com.ar/2015/01/16/economia-en-1-grafi...

[2] Anyway, I remember 2015 was a good year, we had a huge soy harvest and the international price was very high.


Honestly, consider taking a macroeconomics 101 course. I promise, the economic terminology you're throwing around will make a lot more sense, as will Keynes' ideas and how they relate to the way every single mature economy is run since circa the 1940s.


Well, wasn't it Hitler that pulled the US out of the Depression by forcing it to spend 40% of GDP of military?

Keynes just suggested, that there may be better options to end a recession than to fight a war.

Argentina, like most South American countries, has too much red tape, too much bureaucracy, too much corruption, too many people with entitlement. I don't think Keynes has much to do with it. And please spare me the ideas of god' ol Ludwig who has not worked one day of his life in private entrerprises.




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