Factor in the PR impact on the entire space program given the public visibility.
We've never had an astronaut crew get stranded on the moon. though we got close with Apollo 13. If/when that happens for the first time, you'd better believe the entire planet will be paying attention.
Just the congressional inquiries alone will set the space program back by decades.
Astronauts are very visible deaths for politicians whose currency is points in the polls. Having your photo not show up on the news next to a photo of a dead square-jawed captain america astronaut is probably worth 100m of other peoples money.
In WWII young men volunteered to join RAF bomber crews and faced an almost 1-in-2 chance of dying, with a far higher chance of getting wounded or captured.
Thats for the average person - whats the cost to replace the average astronaut? I've seen estimates that it costs $15M just to train 1 astronaut, and the pool of qualified candidates is likely extremely small. I would figure a guess of $100M per astronaut is not unreasonable.
DOT puts it at 13.2m: https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-...