In theory, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (who controls interest rates) is supposed to be insulated from political pressures: one explanation for the root of the "stagflation" malaise in the US economy during the 1970's was that Richard Nixon's chairman (Arthur Burns, who had been a direct advisor to RMN) kept interest rates too low for the economy at the time in order to help Nixon get reelected in 1972 (and then beyond, to make Nixon and then Ford more popular). Under this explanation- common among those who support central bank independence- it took Paul Volecker (a Carer appointee) to run interest rates very high for a long time (the so-called Volecker Recession of the early 1980's) to make up for the failure of Burns. This is where the tradition of Fed Chairman independence comes from. (1)
Donald Trump, as a real estate guy, instinctively understands the power of lower interest rates and definitely lobbied hard for Jay Powell (whom he appointed) to lower interest rates in his first term. So if he gets elected again I expect we will see that sort of pressure applied again, the question is whether the Chairman would continue to chart their own course or not.
1: The truth of this story is, as always with economics, impossibly hard to measure. There was a strong movement from the 1960's into the 1990's to try and create independent central banks- this is where the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics came from, among other things- but the evidence is such that the physicist in me recoils at the idea that this has been proven.
It largely doesn't depend on him, but the 174 fix itself has bipartisan support. But so far they've been unable to craft a whole tax bill that will pass the Senate, because of other disagreements, and now Sen. Crapo is holding the bill because he thinks they'll be able to get a bill they like better next year (though they're talking about making the 174 changes retroactive to 2021).
Interest rates will almost certainly get lower in the next term, regardless of who's in the White House.
I mean, given that he _caused_ these changes (they're a consequence of the 2017 Trump tax 'cuts'), probably not, though then again he's not noted for his consistency.
Both the Republicans and Democrats do intend to fix this (and the rumor is that they intend the fix to be retroactive to 2021). It's generally considered to have been unintentional on Congress's part. However the fix has been held up in the Senate by the Republicans (esp. Sen Crapo), because it's part of a larger tax bill, and the Republicans think they'll be able to get a better bill overall in the next term. Meanwhile startups affected by it are left to swing in the wind.
Trump may face a Democratic House and that would make him unable to change tax rates. People forget that the president as of now is not a dictator - to Trumps dismay of course.
While the flip still seems unlikely, this probably doesn't matter either way for 174 -- currently any bill that passes is likely to have the 174 fix in it, because it has bipartisan support. The problem has been that it's attached to other tax changes that haven't been able to get through the Senate, and Sen. Crapo is intentionally stalling until after the election, because the GOP thinks it'll have more seats and will be able to get a bill they like better.
Will he lower interest rates?