The perspective I take is the 15 year view: The iPhone 1 sucked objectively but by the iPhone 3 the trajectory was clear and 15 years later the world is a very different place.
You hear people very focused on specific shortfalls: "I asked it to write code and look it made a mistake". But there are very clear routes to fixing these and there are lots of people finding it useful despite these bugs.
I think AI is bigger than mobile. I'm nearly 50, and I remember the PC boom, the Internet boom, Social Networking boom, Mobile boom, SaaS boom - probably more that I forget.
I think the PC and Internet booms are the only ones that are as impactful as AI will be in 15 years.
Maybe mobile is as big, maybe not - depends if someone can build AI devices that replace the UX of phones sometime in the next 15 years.
Interesting takeaway if this holds true - following the analogy, people will be excited about GPT-16 as much as they are excited about iPhone 16 today, compared to the excitement about first few generations of iPhone. That may mean that LLMs may become so ubiquitous that we won't even notice. Which means there will be no AGI.
If GPT-16 is pretty much GPT-4 but a bit faster and a bit smarter, then sure. If subsequent generations of GPT continue the trend of qualitatively improving on the predecessors, then we'll likely hit AGI somewhere around GPT-10 at the latest.
The perspective I take is the 15 year view: The iPhone 1 sucked objectively but by the iPhone 3 the trajectory was clear and 15 years later the world is a very different place.
You hear people very focused on specific shortfalls: "I asked it to write code and look it made a mistake". But there are very clear routes to fixing these and there are lots of people finding it useful despite these bugs.
I think AI is bigger than mobile. I'm nearly 50, and I remember the PC boom, the Internet boom, Social Networking boom, Mobile boom, SaaS boom - probably more that I forget.
I think the PC and Internet booms are the only ones that are as impactful as AI will be in 15 years.
Maybe mobile is as big, maybe not - depends if someone can build AI devices that replace the UX of phones sometime in the next 15 years.