Your collection of experts seem to be different than mine, then (so I'm curious who you read instead, please let me know):
Scott Aaronson (the blogger above) is a professor and definitely is more sanguine towards the written article.
Dave Patterson (the Turing award professor of computer architecture) was interviewed last week, he said "We don't know what will happen!" or something like that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxVQsLA2ats&t=2045s
One of my own professors (a CS theoretician ) said, at an AI seminar last year, that there seem to be no known barriers left to AGI (paraphrasing).
Actually I'm personally on the fence, so while the pdf article discussed is not rigorous enough, it makes some interesting high-level arguments. One of them is that the recent growth needs to hit some threshold - this argument is not a continuous argument the way you had mentioned.
Scott Aaronson (the blogger above) is a professor and definitely is more sanguine towards the written article.
Dave Patterson (the Turing award professor of computer architecture) was interviewed last week, he said "We don't know what will happen!" or something like that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxVQsLA2ats&t=2045s
One of my own professors (a CS theoretician ) said, at an AI seminar last year, that there seem to be no known barriers left to AGI (paraphrasing).
Actually I'm personally on the fence, so while the pdf article discussed is not rigorous enough, it makes some interesting high-level arguments. One of them is that the recent growth needs to hit some threshold - this argument is not a continuous argument the way you had mentioned.