Technology revolution means different thing to different people
- technological change, consumer benefit
- investing opportunity.
If you compare to internet revolution consumer benefit increased steadily, but as a general investment category it was total bust. During the internet revolution, Top 5 internet companies were Yahoo.com, AOL.com, Geocities.com, MSN.com, and Lycos.com. It took almost 10 years to Amazon stock to recover from 1999 average price longer to become a good investment. Cisco was the Nvidia of late 90s.
How about personal computer revolution? Tandy, Commodore, Atari, Apple, Acorn, Sinclair, IBM, ...
I can do basic back-on-the-envelope math as a retail investor. I pick investment forecasts for the global AI impact from a13z, Goldman Sachs, Nvidia, for the next 5 to 10 years. Then I do basic cash flow discounting.
How the fuck these valuations make sense?
At some time in next 2-4 years there can be a crash and "dark fiber" equivalent for compute. Tensor compute prices crater and are dominated by energy prices. That's when the high impact innovations emerge to exploit all that available compute.
Finance world looks at the consumer benefit as an interesting feature of the investment opportunity, while the technology world looks at the investment opportunity as an interesting feature of the technology change and consumer benefit.
The two communities will talk right past each other like they’re speaking different languages.
>Finance world looks at the consumer benefit as an interesting feature of the investment opportunity, while the technology world looks at the investment opportunity as an interesting feature of the technology change and consumer benefit.
- technological change, consumer benefit
- investing opportunity.
If you compare to internet revolution consumer benefit increased steadily, but as a general investment category it was total bust. During the internet revolution, Top 5 internet companies were Yahoo.com, AOL.com, Geocities.com, MSN.com, and Lycos.com. It took almost 10 years to Amazon stock to recover from 1999 average price longer to become a good investment. Cisco was the Nvidia of late 90s.
How about personal computer revolution? Tandy, Commodore, Atari, Apple, Acorn, Sinclair, IBM, ...
I can do basic back-on-the-envelope math as a retail investor. I pick investment forecasts for the global AI impact from a13z, Goldman Sachs, Nvidia, for the next 5 to 10 years. Then I do basic cash flow discounting. How the fuck these valuations make sense?
At some time in next 2-4 years there can be a crash and "dark fiber" equivalent for compute. Tensor compute prices crater and are dominated by energy prices. That's when the high impact innovations emerge to exploit all that available compute.