Premise is kinda all wrong, but IMO some interesting questions nonetheless are posed at the end of your comment.
First agricultural revolution was farming, that allowed for cities. Second agricultural revolution overlaps with the industrial revolution.
That was the transition from having only bio-mechanical energy available to also mechanical energy (the only source of power was no longer just muscles, but then things like steam power). The industrial revolution ended in the mid 1800s - a full century before the transition to service and knowledge jobs. Still, by the end of the second agricultural revolution, 50% of the labor force are still farmers. The industrial revolution was done decades before manufacturing labor participation peaked (in the US).
The industrial revolution was NOT the shift into factories, it was the advent of steam engine and steam power. You didn't have to pull a cart with a horse anymore, there were steam engines (trains). This is WAY before the model T comes out.
The idea that the majority of laborers hopped (in discrete steps) from farming, to factories, to service jobs is wrong. The percentage shift is smaller and more gradual than would be commonly believed, and plays over relatively long periods of time, most of those time periods playing out over just the last 400 years.
> Long ago most humans spent their time and energy on farming so they wouldn't starve. We automated that with a couple of Agricultural Revolutions.
This statements is misleading to the point of being incorrect.
This resource states there were three major agricultural revolutions [1]
Other resources refer to "The agricultural revolution", which was the second. "The Second Agricultural Revolution was both a contributing factor and consequence of the Industrial Revolution, which took place in the 1700s-1800s. As labor productivity and agricultural technology use increased and the population boomed due to a growing food supply, many people were left without land or work in rural areas. Thus, they migrated to the city, typically to find work in manufacturing." [1]
Note, by 1800 in the US, still 80% of the labor force worked as farmers. [2] Thus, there was a shedding from 80%+ to 80%, and many of those left for other work, namely cities. It's not the case though that the agricultural revolution caused humans to go from 90% farming to 10% farming, with everyone there going into manufacturing - it's much small numbers and much more gradual shift that occurred over a few centuries (notably, just the last 3)
The breakdown:
- first agricultural revolution allowed humans to farm and not be nomadic (12k years ago, I'm still shocked by how relatively recent this was)
- second agricultural revolution leveraged the industrial revolution, where a lot fewer people were needed for farming (but still a large number were required)
- third agriculatural revolution was in the 1900s and lead to much better crop yields
- arguably there is a 4th agricultural revolution underway today. I was talking to a farmer a year ago and they stated how amazing the tractors are now. They literally drive themselves & combine GPS data and automated controls to control the fertilization and watering down to the square foot.
Still today, 20% of the total global population is doing subsistence agriculture. [3] I would guess that a large fraction are still growing their own gardens for food supplementation.
> That got automated during the Industrial Revolution. So we moved to service and knowledge jobs.
"The Industrial Revolution was the transition from creating goods by hand to using machines. Its start and end are widely debated by scholars, but the period generally spanned from about 1760 to 1840" [4]
The industrial revolution is the transition from near exclusive muscle power (humans/oxen/horses) to steam power, machine power. From 1800 to 1860 the percentage of people (in the US) that were farmers went from 80% to 50%. It takes a lot longer before that percentage falls below 20%. The transition to service and knowledge jobs wasn't until the 1960s, that's about 200 years after the industrial revolution.
Still though, I can't find a single resource that shows US manufacturing percentage was ever greater than 30% of the workforce. The resources I find show there was a consistent increase in manufacturing output until essentially the late 1900s (speaking of the the US only), while at the same time there was a reduction in the percentage workforce in manufacturing.
> And now we're potentialy seeing the start of automation in those knowledge jobs.
Potentially is the operative word. "ThePrimeTime" aka "Primeagen" recently did a video on Devin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80MPXoRHvK8 (start at 8:50, until about 9:45 mark)
His assessment, until Devin is 100x more powerful, two orders of magnitude better, only then will Devin even potentially start taking over jobs from humans. I generally agree with that take. I think we get there in maybe 20 to 40 years from now.
Personally, that idea seems similar to me as the idea that cars are imminently about to be self driving and you can lease your self driving car as a taxi during work-hours. That idea was floated by Musk since 2014, and every year since, that was going to be a reality within one year. [5]
--------------------------
I think your last questions though are very interesting, namely these: "Will this be a painful revolution as the Industrial one? Where will we spend our time and energy on next?"
Though, I find your premises to be inaccurate, and your timeline for when this next revolution is off by at least 30 years. It's yet to even start. I'll note we're still living through the automation of the service industry, that revolution is not yet done - computers have not yet eaten the world. As an example, the first successful 'pets.com' is still less than 20 years old, and that is just the act of automating a store-front to purchase cat food - plenty of examples of industries and services that are still largely paper based. A couple years ago I interviewed for a startup that was automating food chain supply, they noted that industry is still almost entirely paper based, and that is in 2021!
Premise is kinda all wrong, but IMO some interesting questions nonetheless are posed at the end of your comment.
First agricultural revolution was farming, that allowed for cities. Second agricultural revolution overlaps with the industrial revolution.
That was the transition from having only bio-mechanical energy available to also mechanical energy (the only source of power was no longer just muscles, but then things like steam power). The industrial revolution ended in the mid 1800s - a full century before the transition to service and knowledge jobs. Still, by the end of the second agricultural revolution, 50% of the labor force are still farmers. The industrial revolution was done decades before manufacturing labor participation peaked (in the US).
The industrial revolution was NOT the shift into factories, it was the advent of steam engine and steam power. You didn't have to pull a cart with a horse anymore, there were steam engines (trains). This is WAY before the model T comes out.
The idea that the majority of laborers hopped (in discrete steps) from farming, to factories, to service jobs is wrong. The percentage shift is smaller and more gradual than would be commonly believed, and plays over relatively long periods of time, most of those time periods playing out over just the last 400 years.
> Long ago most humans spent their time and energy on farming so they wouldn't starve. We automated that with a couple of Agricultural Revolutions.
This statements is misleading to the point of being incorrect.
This resource states there were three major agricultural revolutions [1]
Other resources refer to "The agricultural revolution", which was the second. "The Second Agricultural Revolution was both a contributing factor and consequence of the Industrial Revolution, which took place in the 1700s-1800s. As labor productivity and agricultural technology use increased and the population boomed due to a growing food supply, many people were left without land or work in rural areas. Thus, they migrated to the city, typically to find work in manufacturing." [1]
Note, by 1800 in the US, still 80% of the labor force worked as farmers. [2] Thus, there was a shedding from 80%+ to 80%, and many of those left for other work, namely cities. It's not the case though that the agricultural revolution caused humans to go from 90% farming to 10% farming, with everyone there going into manufacturing - it's much small numbers and much more gradual shift that occurred over a few centuries (notably, just the last 3)
The breakdown:
- first agricultural revolution allowed humans to farm and not be nomadic (12k years ago, I'm still shocked by how relatively recent this was)
- second agricultural revolution leveraged the industrial revolution, where a lot fewer people were needed for farming (but still a large number were required)
- third agriculatural revolution was in the 1900s and lead to much better crop yields
- arguably there is a 4th agricultural revolution underway today. I was talking to a farmer a year ago and they stated how amazing the tractors are now. They literally drive themselves & combine GPS data and automated controls to control the fertilization and watering down to the square foot.
Still today, 20% of the total global population is doing subsistence agriculture. [3] I would guess that a large fraction are still growing their own gardens for food supplementation.
> That got automated during the Industrial Revolution. So we moved to service and knowledge jobs.
"The Industrial Revolution was the transition from creating goods by hand to using machines. Its start and end are widely debated by scholars, but the period generally spanned from about 1760 to 1840" [4]
The industrial revolution is the transition from near exclusive muscle power (humans/oxen/horses) to steam power, machine power. From 1800 to 1860 the percentage of people (in the US) that were farmers went from 80% to 50%. It takes a lot longer before that percentage falls below 20%. The transition to service and knowledge jobs wasn't until the 1960s, that's about 200 years after the industrial revolution.
Still though, I can't find a single resource that shows US manufacturing percentage was ever greater than 30% of the workforce. The resources I find show there was a consistent increase in manufacturing output until essentially the late 1900s (speaking of the the US only), while at the same time there was a reduction in the percentage workforce in manufacturing.
> And now we're potentialy seeing the start of automation in those knowledge jobs.
Potentially is the operative word. "ThePrimeTime" aka "Primeagen" recently did a video on Devin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80MPXoRHvK8 (start at 8:50, until about 9:45 mark)
His assessment, until Devin is 100x more powerful, two orders of magnitude better, only then will Devin even potentially start taking over jobs from humans. I generally agree with that take. I think we get there in maybe 20 to 40 years from now.
Personally, that idea seems similar to me as the idea that cars are imminently about to be self driving and you can lease your self driving car as a taxi during work-hours. That idea was floated by Musk since 2014, and every year since, that was going to be a reality within one year. [5]
--------------------------
I think your last questions though are very interesting, namely these: "Will this be a painful revolution as the Industrial one? Where will we spend our time and energy on next?"
Though, I find your premises to be inaccurate, and your timeline for when this next revolution is off by at least 30 years. It's yet to even start. I'll note we're still living through the automation of the service industry, that revolution is not yet done - computers have not yet eaten the world. As an example, the first successful 'pets.com' is still less than 20 years old, and that is just the act of automating a store-front to purchase cat food - plenty of examples of industries and services that are still largely paper based. A couple years ago I interviewed for a startup that was automating food chain supply, they noted that industry is still almost entirely paper based, and that is in 2021!
[1] https://populationeducation.org/a-timeline-of-the-three-majo...
[2] https://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=11...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsistence_agriculture
[4] https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/industrial...
[5] https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-...